Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CPI YoY climbed to 2.9% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom CPI YoY climbed to 2.9% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.3% from June's 2.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.9
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 2.9
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.9% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.9% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 16) and CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
CPI YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About CPI YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
UK's CPI YoY for July rose to 2.900000%, matching estimates and up from June's 2.600000%. This increase signals a pickup in inflationary pressures after two months at 2.8%. Market focus will remain on Bank of England policy amid this upward trend. Updated 8/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.83 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.02 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.77 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -5.29 | -8.19 | -9.9 | -7.60 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -0.92 | -2.322 | -3.6 | -2.22 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.88 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 1.2 | 1 | -0.1 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -18.01 | -19.3 | -21.8 | -19.62 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.57 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.05 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0 | -0.17 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.62 | Medium |
| 11:30 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.52 | Low |