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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom CPI YoY fell to 2.5% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom CPI YoY fell to 2.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.6% from March's 3.1% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.15%.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.6
Consensus
3.1
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.6% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI YoY - UK
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About CPI YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK’s CPI YoY for May came in at 2.800000%, missing the 3.000000% estimate and down from April’s 3.300000%. This marks a continued deceleration in inflation, easing from the prior month’s higher reading. Market focus now shifts to upcoming Bank of England policy decisions amid this cooling price pressure. Updated 5/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary tailwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.