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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Claimant Count Rate fell to 3.9% in November 2013
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased November 2013
United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate fell to 3.9% in November 2013, down 0.1% from October's 4.0% reading. The reading matched the 3.9% consensus. Claimant Count Rate has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Claimant Count Rate is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
3.9
Consensus
4
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Claimant Count Rate (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.9% in November 2013. This matched the market consensus of 3.9% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Construction PMI (Jul 6) and Halifax House Price Index MoM (Jul 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2013.
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Claimant Count Rate - UK
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About Claimant Count Rate — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Claimant Count Rate is a key financial indicator that measures the number of individuals who are claiming unemployment benefits in a given country or region. It is a reliable measure of the health of the labor market and provides valuable insights into the overall economic conditions. A lower Claimant Count Rate indicates a stronger job market, while a higher rate may suggest a weaker economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and predictions about the future of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2013): actual 3.9 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Oct 2013): 4 %. Before that (Aug 2013): 4.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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