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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.08% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
United Kingdom 40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.08% in January 2025, released February 2025, up 0.52% from December's 4.56% reading.
Latest Release
5.076000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.557000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction (United Kingdom) was reported at 5.08% in February 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.56%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug 20) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction - UK
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About 40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The 40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest for long-term government bonds in the United Kingdom. This auction allows the government to raise funds by selling bonds with a maturity of 40 years, providing investors with a secure and stable investment option. The results of this auction can reflect the overall confidence in the UK economy and government, as well as the current interest rates and inflation expectations. It is closely monitored by investors and financial analysts as it can impact the bond market and serve as a gauge for the country's economic health.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2025): actual 5.076 %. Prior reading (Jun 2024): 4.557 %. Before that (Feb 2024): 4.518 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -13 | 5 | -4.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.45 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 147 | 200 | 141.50 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.85 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | -6.4 | 11.2 | 0.10 | Low |
| 08:30 | UK | Labour Productivity QoQ | -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.65 | Low |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.48 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.3 | 3.13 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.63 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.85 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.63 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.58 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -1.9 | 0 | -0.08 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.88 | High |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.95 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | -40.50 | Medium | |
| 23:01 | UK | Consumer Confidence | -17 | -18 | -15.50 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY | 5.4 | 3.3 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | 0 | -1.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales YoY | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | -0.5 | -0.85 | High | |