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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core RPI MoM held to 0.6% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Core RPI MoM held to 0.6% in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading missed the 0.7% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.24%. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core RPI MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.1% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.8% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, down from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.57%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Core RPI MoM - UK
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About Core RPI MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Core RPI MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the core retail price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary pressures in an economy, as well as the purchasing power of consumers. It is widely used by policymakers, economists, and investors to monitor and analyze inflation trends and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy, business investments, and personal finances.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.71) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |