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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.04% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 5.04% in October 2026, up 0.09% from September's 4.95% reading.
Latest Release
5.036000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.945000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction (United Kingdom) was reported at 5.04% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.95%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.35%, ranging from 3.81% to 5.04% across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.94%, up from the prior three at 4.56%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.41%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.15%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction has averaged 4.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction - UK
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About 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction is a financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which the UK government borrows money by selling 5-year bonds to investors. This auction is closely monitored by financial institutions and investors as it reflects the government's borrowing costs and can impact the overall economy. A successful auction with low interest rates indicates confidence in the government's financial stability, while a high interest rate may signal potential economic concerns.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 5.036 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 4.945 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 4.843 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |