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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 4.95% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction climbed to 4.95% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from August's 4.84% reading.
Latest Release
4.945000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.843000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction (United Kingdom) was reported at 4.95% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.84%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.28%, ranging from 3.81% to 4.95% across 15 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.86%, up from the prior three at 4.39%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.38%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.15%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction has averaged 4.21%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 16) and BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction - UK
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About 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction is a financial indicator that measures the interest rate at which the UK government borrows money by selling 5-year bonds to investors. This auction is closely monitored by financial institutions and investors as it reflects the government's borrowing costs and can impact the overall economy. A successful auction with low interest rates indicates confidence in the government's financial stability, while a high interest rate may signal potential economic concerns.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.945 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 4.843 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 4.786 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.35 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.90 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -5.29 | -8.19 | -9.9 | -7.60 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -0.92 | -2.322 | -3.6 | -2.26 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 1.2 | 1 | -0.1 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -18.01 | -19.3 | -21.8 | -19.91 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.65 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.00 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0 | -0.10 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.63 | Medium |
| 11:30 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.53 | Low |
| 12:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.53 | Low |