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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core CPI MoM fell to 0.2% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom Core CPI MoM fell to 0.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's 0.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.1% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.2% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Aug 20) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core CPI MoM - UK
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About Core CPI MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
UK Core CPI MoM rose 0.20% in July, beating the 0.10% estimate and down from June’s 0.30%. The slower monthly increase signals easing inflationary pressures but still reflects ongoing price growth. Markets will watch upcoming data for further signs of inflation trends amid steady Bank of England policy. Updated 8/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.3 | 3.25 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 5.75 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.70 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -1.9 | 0 | -0.85 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.95 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:01 | UK | Consumer Confidence | -17 | -18 | -15.50 | Medium | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel YoY | 5.4 | 3.3 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales Ex Fuel MoM | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | 0 | -1.70 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales YoY | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | -0.5 | -0.85 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.5 | 51.85 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.1 | 51.8 | 49.90 | High | |
| 08:30 | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.6 | 50.05 | Low | |