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Canada ADP Employment Change fell to -231.2K in January 2021, released February 2021, down 569.4K from December's 338.2K reading. The reading missed the -14.1K consensus by 217.1K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 124.6K. Over the past 3 months, ADP Employment Change averaged 6.0K, vs -175.3K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 5th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
across last 9 releases
Feb 2021
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
ADP Employment Change (Canada) was reported at 475 thousand in March 2022. The reading rose from the previous value of -301 thousand.
The trailing three releases averaged 64 thousand, down from the prior three at 102 thousand.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 68 thousand.
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (May 28) and Financial Stability Report (May 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2022.
ADP Employment Change is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the monthly change in non-farm private employment in the United States. It is based on payroll data from over 400,000 businesses and provides valuable insights into the health of the labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, business confidence, and overall economic growth.
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Feb 2022): actual 475 K. Prior reading (Jan 2022): -301 K. Before that (Dec 2021): 19.2 K.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Monday, May 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 3 | 1.4 | -0.45 | Low | ||
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Current Account | -0.7 | -3.4 | -3.40 | Medium | ||