Loading page content
Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada ADP Employment Change fell to -231.2K in January 2021
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased February 2021
Canada ADP Employment Change fell to -231.2K in January 2021, released February 2021, down 569.4K from December's 338.2K reading. The reading missed the -14.1K consensus by 217.1K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 124.6K. Over the past 3 months, ADP Employment Change averaged 6.0K, vs -175.3K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 5th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-231.2
Actual
-14.1
Consensus
338.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±68.25 thousand
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Feb 2021
Predicted: -14.1
Actual: -231.2
Error: +217.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ADP Employment Change (Canada) was reported at 475 thousand in March 2022. The reading rose from the previous value of -301 thousand.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 64 thousand, down from the prior three at 102 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 68 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (May 28) and Financial Stability Report (May 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2022.
SHARE
ADP Employment Change - CA
Loading chart data...
About ADP Employment Change — Canada
DEFINITION
ADP Employment Change is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the monthly change in non-farm private employment in the United States. It is based on payroll data from over 400,000 businesses and provides valuable insights into the health of the labor market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending, business confidence, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2022): actual 475 K. Prior reading (Jan 2022): -301 K. Before that (Dec 2021): 19.2 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.