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United Kingdom Employment Change climbed to 148K in March 2026, released May 2026, up 124K from February's 24K reading. The print exceeded the 107K consensus by 41K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 91.75K. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 54.5K, vs 39.33K in the prior 3-month window. Employment Change is now the highest in 7 months.
across last 12 releases
Mar 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The May 2026 reading rose from the previous value of 24. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±59.96. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50) and negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX).
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, May 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | Claimant Count Change | 26.5 | 4.9 | 27.3 | 28.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.82 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | Employment Change | 148 | 24 | 107 | 140.25 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.95 | High | |
| 06:00 | HMRC Payrolls Change | -100 | -28 | -26 | -63.00 | Low | |
| 08:30 | Labour Productivity QoQ | 0.9 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, May 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.85 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.75 | Medium | ||
| 06:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.3 | 3 | 3.00 | High | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Output MoM | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.85 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Input MoM | 4.4 | 1.1 | 1.25 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.30 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Output YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.35 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Core Output YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | Retail Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.65 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | PPI Input YoY | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.25 | Low | ||
| 06:00 | CPI YoY | 3.3 | 3 | 3.00 | High | ||
| 08:30 | House Price Index YoY | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.10 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.6 | 51.7 | 51.70 | Low | ||
| 08:30 | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.7 | 51.8 | 51.80 | High | ||
| 08:30 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.7 | 53 | 53.00 | High | ||
| 10:00 | CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -38 | -40 | -41.50 | Medium | ||