Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Employment Change climbed to 147K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Employment Change climbed to 147K in May 2026, released July 2026, up 48K from April's 99K reading. The print exceeded the 85K consensus by 62K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 95.67K. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 124K, vs 53.67K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
147
Actual
85
Consensus
99
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±53.75 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 101.5
Actual: 147
Error: -45.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (United Kingdom) was reported at 147 thousand in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 85 thousand by 62 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 99 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 103 thousand, ranging from -22 thousand to 238 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 132 thousand, up from the prior three at 73 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 81 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 88 thousand). In July readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 100 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, negatively correlated (Bearish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 54 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Employment Change - UK
Loading chart data...
About Employment Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 147 K, consensus 85 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 100 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 148 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Euro STOXX 50 (Bearish Euro STOXX 50, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 1.3 | 29.4 | 18.05 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | -23.3 | -19.8 | -19.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 3 | 20 | 8.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 99 | 85 | 116.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.40 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High |