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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Unemployment Rate held to 4.9% in May 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom Unemployment Rate held to 4.9% in May 2026, released July 2026. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.2%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 4.95%, vs 5.1% in the prior 3-month window. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
4.9
Actual
5
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 5
Actual: 4.9
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (United Kingdom) was reported at 4.9% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.96%, ranging from 4.7% to 5.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.93%, down from the prior three at 5.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jul 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - UK
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About Unemployment Rate — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.9 %, consensus 5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 6.7 | 1.3 | 29.4 | 18.05 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Public Sector Net Borrowing | -16 | -23.3 | -19.8 | -19.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -4 | 3 | 20 | 8.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 147 | 99 | 85 | 116.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.40 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High |