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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Markit Services PMI fell to 58.8 in January 2014
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2014
United Kingdom Markit Services PMI fell to 58.8 in January 2014, down 1.2 from December's 60 reading. The reading matched the 60 consensus. Markit Services PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
58.8
Actual
60
Consensus
60
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.09
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Jan 2014
Predicted: 59
Actual: 58.8
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Markit Services PMI (United Kingdom) was reported at 58.80 in January 2014. This missed the market consensus of 60.00 by 1.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 60.00.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 59.67, up from the prior three at 54.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.09.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2014.
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Markit Services PMI - UK
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About Markit Services PMI — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Markit Services PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in an economy. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the services industry by tracking changes in business activity, new orders, employment, and prices. This data is collected through surveys of purchasing managers in various service-based companies, making it a reliable and timely indicator of economic trends. Markit Services PMI is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic outlook.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2014): actual 58.8, consensus 60. Prior reading (Dec 2013): 60. Before that (Aug 2013): 60.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.