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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI fell to 38.2 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI fell to 38.2 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.5 from April's 39.7 reading. The reading matched the 40.2 consensus.
Latest Release
38.200000
Actual
40.200000
Consensus
39.700000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.87
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 40.2
Actual: 38.2
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Bullish DAX | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Bullish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Construction PMI (United Kingdom) was reported at 38.20 in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 40.20 by 2.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 39.70. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 43.19, ranging from 38.20 to 46.40 across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 43.03, up from the prior three at 41.20. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.93) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.20). In June readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Construction PMI has averaged 46.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with DAX, positively correlated (Bullish DAX). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.88.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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S&P Global Construction PMI - UK
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About S&P Global Construction PMI — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Construction PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the global construction industry. It provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of the sector, including changes in output, new orders, employment, and business confidence. This indicator is used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess the health of the construction industry and make informed decisions. With its comprehensive coverage and timely updates, the S&P Global Construction PMI is an essential tool for understanding the state of the global economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 38.2, consensus 40.2. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 39.7. Before that (Mar 2026): 45.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.