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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Employment Change fell to 67K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Employment Change fell to 67K in July 2026, released September 2026, down 16K from June's 83K reading. The reading matched the 70K consensus. Employment Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 110K, vs 85.67K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
67
Actual
70
Consensus
83
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±49.38 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 65
Actual: 67
Error: -2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (United Kingdom) was reported at 67 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 70 thousand by 3 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 83 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 87 thousand, ranging from -22 thousand to 232 thousand across 12 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 99 thousand, down from the prior three at 111 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 66 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 87 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 188 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 49 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Sep 17) and BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Employment Change - UK
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About Employment Change — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 67 K, consensus 70 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 83 K. Before that (May 2026): 147 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -26 | -19 | -4 | 11.00 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | 27.8 | -11.8 | 8.3 | 14.53 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 67 | 83 | 70 | 75.50 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.00 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.42 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.83 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | 0.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 | 0.30 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.48 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.27 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.05 | High |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.40 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.58 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.55 | Low |
| 06:00 | UK | Core RPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.65 | Low |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 1.4 | 2 | 2.1 | 2.17 | Low |