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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom NIESR GDP climbed to 0.2% in June 2018
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased June 2018
United Kingdom NIESR GDP climbed to 0.2% in June 2018, up 0.1% from May's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.35%. Over the past 3 months, NIESR GDP averaged 0.15%, vs 0.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2018
Predicted: 0.22
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NIESR GDP (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.2% in June 2018. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Consumer Credit (Jul 29) and Mortgage Approvals (Jul 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2018.
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NIESR GDP - UK
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About NIESR GDP — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
NIESR GDP is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall economic performance of a country. It is calculated by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and provides valuable insights into the growth and stability of a nation's economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. NIESR GDP is considered a reliable and authoritative source of information for understanding the health of an economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2018): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2018): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2018): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Distributive Trades | -26 | -54 | -45 | -45.25 | Medium |
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.662 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 56.21 | 56.5 | 56.50 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 2.89 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 23:01 | UK | Car Production YoY | 3.2 | -0.5 | -3.10 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 29 | 29 | 29.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 79 | 79 | 79.00 | Medium | |