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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom GDP YoY fell to 1.0% in November 2024
U.K. Office for National StatisticsQuarterlyReleased January 2025
United Kingdom GDP YoY fell to 1.0% in November 2024, released January 2025, down 0.1% from October's 1.1% reading. The reading missed the 1.3% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.63%. Over the past 3 months, GDP YoY averaged 1.15%, vs 0.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 1.2
Actual: 1
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 1% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.1%, up from the prior three at 0.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Consumer Credit (Jul 29) and Mortgage Approvals (Jul 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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GDP YoY - UK
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About GDP YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
GDP YoY stands for Gross Domestic Product Year-over-Year, and is a key economic indicator that measures the annual percentage change in a country's total economic output. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and growth of an economy, as well as its performance compared to previous years. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2024): actual 1 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Oct 2024): 1.3 %. Before that (Sep 2024): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Distributive Trades | -26 | -54 | -45 | -45.25 | Medium |
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.662 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 56.21 | 56.5 | 56.50 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 2.89 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 23:01 | UK | Car Production YoY | 3.2 | -0.5 | -3.10 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 29 | 29 | 29.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 79 | 79 | 79.00 | Medium | |