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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM fell to -0.6% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM fell to -0.6% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.0% from April's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.21%. Nationwide Housing Prices MoM is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.1
Actual: -0.6
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -0.6% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.13%, ranging from -0.6% to 0.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0%, down from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.48%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/GBP (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, negatively correlated (Bearish FTSE 100). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Jul 31) and CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Nationwide Housing Prices MoM - UK
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About Nationwide Housing Prices MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in average home prices across the entire country on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help investors and policymakers make informed decisions about real estate investments and economic policies. By tracking the month-over-month changes in housing prices, this indicator can help identify trends and potential risks in the housing market, making it a crucial tool for monitoring the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.6 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.45 | Medium | |