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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices YoY fell to 0.5% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices YoY fell to 0.5% in October 2026, down 0.3% from September's 0.8% reading. The reading missed the 0.6% consensus by 0.1%. Nationwide Housing Prices YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Nationwide Housing Prices YoY averaged 1.2%, vs 1.75% in the prior 3-month window. Nationwide Housing Prices YoY is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.48 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.15
Actual: 0.8
Error: +0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.29%, ranging from 0.6% to 1.8% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.4%, up from the prior three at 1.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.84%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Nationwide Housing Prices YoY - UK
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About Nationwide Housing Prices YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the average selling price of homes across the entire country over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and stability of the housing market, as well as the direction of home prices. It is a key tool for investors, economists, and policymakers to track and analyze trends in the real estate sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |