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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP Growth Annualized climbed to 1.8% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Japan GDP Growth Annualized climbed to 1.8% in January 2026, released June 2026, up 1.1% from December's 0.7% reading. The print exceeded the 1.3% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.67%. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
1.3
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.79 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.43
Actual: 1.8
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Annualized (Japan) was reported at 1.8% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from -2.3% to 2.2% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.73%, up from the prior three at -1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.63%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.36%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Annualized has averaged -0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.79%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Annualized - JP
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About GDP Growth Annualized — Japan
DEFINITION
GDP Growth Annualized is a key economic indicator that measures the annualized rate of change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and growth of an economy, as well as its ability to produce goods and services. This indicator is closely monitored by governments, businesses, and investors as it can impact financial markets and influence policy decisions. A positive GDP Growth Annualized indicates a growing economy, while a negative growth rate may signal a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |