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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan CB Leading Index climbed to 116.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan CB Leading Index climbed to 116.5% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 0.4% from April's 116.1% reading. The reading matched the 116.8% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 11.7%. Over the past 3 months, CB Leading Index averaged 115.46%, vs 111.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 96th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
116.5
Actual
116.8
Consensus
116.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.38 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 116.92
Actual: 116.5
Error: +0.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CB Leading Index (Japan) was reported at 116.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 116.8% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 116.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 110.65%, ranging from 105.6% to 116.8% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 116.47%, up from the prior three at 114.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.61%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.82%). In July readings over the past 3 years, CB Leading Index has averaged 110.85%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.38%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CB Leading Index - JP
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About CB Leading Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The CB Leading Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall economic health and potential future performance of a country's economy. It is based on a composite of various economic factors, such as stock prices, consumer expectations, and interest rates, and is used by investors and policymakers to make informed decisions about the direction of the economy. The CB Leading Index provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy, making it a crucial tool for assessing market trends and making strategic financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 116.5 %, consensus 116.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 116.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 116.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |