Japan’s CB Leading Index rose to 112.40 in February, beating the consensus estimate of 113.00 and marking a 2.10% gain from January’s 110.30. This reading is the highest since October 2022, reflecting broad-based improvements in manufacturing, new orders, and consumer sentiment. The Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose policy as markets price in steady expansion amid rising economic momentum. Updated 3/9/26
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Cb Leading Index - JP
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Japan’s CB Leading Index rose to 112.40 in February, its highest since October 2022, marking a 2.1% MoM gain and outpacing consensus. Upward momentum reflects broad-based improvements in manufacturing, new orders, and consumer sentiment.
Japan CB Leading Index Hits 16-Month High in February
The Conference Board Leading Index for Japan advanced sharply in February, signaling renewed economic momentum. The latest reading, released March 9, 2026, shows the index at 112.40, up from January’s 110.30 and well above the 12-month average of 109.17. This marks the strongest monthly print since October 2022, with the index now up 5.0 points from its October 2025 level of 107. The data underscores a broad-based recovery across key economic drivers.
The February index reading of 112.40 stands well above the Bank of Japan’s neutral threshold of 100, signaling robust forward momentum. The central bank has not adjusted its policy stance in response to this data, maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation remains below its 2% target.
Market lens
Japanese equities rallied on the release, with the Nikkei 225 extending gains to fresh multi-decade highs. Investors interpreted the data as confirmation of Japan’s improving growth outlook, driving increased flows into cyclical sectors and exporters. The yen remained steady, reflecting balanced expectations for future policy moves.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Industrial production: +0.6pp
Job offers-to-applicants ratio: +0.2pp
Real money supply: +0.1pp
Policy pulse
With the CB Leading Index now 2.1% higher than January’s 110.30, the gap versus the BoJ’s neutral level has widened. However, the central bank’s forward guidance remains unchanged, citing persistent wage and price pressures as reasons for caution.
Market lens
Bond yields edged higher following the release. Market participants weighed the implications of sustained economic strength for future monetary normalization, though consensus remains that any policy shift will be gradual.
Chart Dynamics
February’s CB Leading Index print of 112.40 marks a sharp acceleration from January’s 110.30 and stands well above the 12-month average of 109.17. The index has now risen for three consecutive months, gaining 2.5 points since December’s 109.90. Compared to November’s 108.60 and October’s 107.00, the current level reflects a clear uptrend.
Year-over-year, the index is up 4.3% from February 2025’s 107.80, underscoring the breadth of the recovery. The last time the index was above 112 was in October 2022, highlighting the significance of this rebound.
CB Leading Index trend October 2025 – February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The CB Leading Index’s steady climb since October signals broad-based improvement in Japan’s economic outlook. The sustained uptrend, with February’s reading at a 16-month high, points to strengthening business conditions and rising confidence across sectors.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
Bullish (30–40%): Continued gains in new orders and consumer sentiment drive the index above 113.50 by April, supporting robust GDP growth.
Base case (45–55%): The index stabilizes near 112, reflecting steady but moderate expansion as external demand plateaus.
Bearish (15–25%): Weakening exports or policy missteps reverse recent gains, pulling the index back toward 110.
Risks and methodology
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global demand and domestic stimulus. Downside risks stem from yen volatility and external shocks. The CB Leading Index aggregates ten forward-looking components, including new orders, stock prices, and labor market data, using a weighted average methodology. Data sourced from the Conference Board and Japan’s Cabinet Office[1].
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Japan’s leading indicators are flashing green, but markets remain alert to global headwinds. The February surge in the CB Leading Index has reinforced optimism among investors and policymakers, yet the durability of this uptrend will depend on both domestic reforms and external stability.
Key Markets Reacting to CB Leading Index
Japan’s CB Leading Index is closely watched by global investors, with ripple effects across equities, currencies, and select international stocks. The following symbols have shown historical sensitivity to shifts in Japan’s economic momentum, reflecting both direct and indirect exposures.
AAPL — Apple’s supply chain and sales in Japan make it responsive to Japanese consumer and business cycles.
USDJPY — The yen’s value often shifts in tandem with Japanese leading indicators, impacting global forex flows.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s trading volumes in Japan can spike during periods of economic uncertainty or optimism.
CB Leading Index vs. USDJPY (2020–2026):
Year
CB Leading Index
USDJPY Trend
2020
98.4
Yen strengthens
2022
112.1
Yen weakens
2024
105.6
Yen stable
2026
112.4
Yen steady
Historically, a rising CB Leading Index correlates with periods of yen depreciation, though the relationship is influenced by global risk sentiment and policy shifts.
FAQ
What is the Japan CB Leading Index and why does it matter?
The CB Leading Index tracks forward-looking economic indicators for Japan, offering early signals on growth momentum and business cycles.
How did the CB Leading Index perform in February 2026?
The index climbed to 112.40 in February, its highest since October 2022, reflecting broad-based improvements across manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and housing.
What does the latest CB Leading Index reading mean for investors?
February’s surge signals strengthening economic conditions in Japan, prompting positive reactions in equities and currency markets.
Japan’s CB Leading Index signals a robust economic rebound, with February’s reading marking a new cycle high.
Updated 3/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Conference Board, Japan CB Leading Index, official release March 9, 2026.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
3.8
4.7
5.5
4.65
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
25.3
22.5
24.35
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2
2.3
2.1
2.08
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
24.2
25.3
25.3
27.15
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
1.3
-2.6
1.2
1.25
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
-0.7
0.3
0.30
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.3
-0.2
0.2
-39002.72
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.38
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.12
High
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.5
-2.2
0.8
0.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-
0.9
1
1.23
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1
-2.6
2.5
1.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
3
2.4
2.5
2.52
Low
22:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
17:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0
0.02
Low
07:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.07
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48.2
48.27
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
112.4
110.3
113
113.10
Low
04:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
111
113.2
113.30
Low
01:15
JP
Current Account
941.6
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.53
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3.15
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
3.3
1.5
1
1.23
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
40
37.9
38.1
38.37
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.7
53.8
53.70
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.90
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.7
53.8
53.70
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
6.5
2.9
2.3
4.40
Medium
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-10.6
-9.5
-9.8
-10.10
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.19
1.19
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
53
51.5
52.8
53.08
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
5.7
20.2
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-0.4
-1.3
-2
-2.70
Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.03
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
4.1
-2
1.5
2.22
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
1.8
2
1.8
1.73
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.22
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.3
114.9
114.5
114.28
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.6
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
22:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
22:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.8
53.1
52.5
52.73
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52.8
51.5
52
52.25
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.8
53.7
53.3
53.65
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.8
51.5
51.3
51.58
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.4
2.3
2.22
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.72
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
19.1
-11
8.5
10.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
16.8
-6.4
2
2.68
Medium
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.46
-0.06
-0.18
0.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
16.8
5.1
12
13.53
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-2.5
5.2
3
1.32
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.13
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
1.3
-5.3
3
1.05
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
2.6
3.43
Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
117010.08
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.48
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
0.90
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.28
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
11.35
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.87
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2202.13
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.63
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.83
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.02
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
115.08
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.32
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.12
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.30
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.90
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.25
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.60
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.78
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-5.10
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-0.60
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.47
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.78
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.13
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.87
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
114.98
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.55
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.60
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.13
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.85
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.55
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.40
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
0.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
1.93
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.63
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
-1.15
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.27
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.63
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.05
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-1.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
13.88
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.38
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
16.05
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.45
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.87
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.13
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4396.13
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
115.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.22
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.50
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.82
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.07
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.63
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.32
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.50
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.40
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.35
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.98
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
2.23
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.43
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
110.02
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.18
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.92
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.20
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.03
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.98
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
0.02
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
4.28
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
6.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
0.82
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-0.15
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.95
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.75
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.13
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan CB Leading Index Rises to Highest Level Since 2022 The CB Leading Index measures forward-looking economic indicators to gauge Japan’s future growth prospects. In February 2026, the index reached 112.40, up 2.10% from January’s 110.30, marking a 2.10-point increase and released on March 9, 2026. This rise signals broad-based improvements across manufacturing, new orders, and consumer sentiment, reflecting strengthening economic momentum. The index’s climb to its highest point since October 2022 suggests that business conditions are improving steadily. Despite the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, investors have responded positively, with Japanese equities rallying on the data. JPMorgan analysts noted that “the sustained upward trend in the CB Leading Index highlights growing confidence in Japan’s economic recovery, even as inflation remains subdued.” This data reinforces optimism about Japan’s near-term growth outlook amid ongoing global uncertainties.
February’s CB Leading Index print of 112.40 marks a sharp acceleration from January’s 110.30 and stands well above the 12-month average of 109.17. The index has now risen for three consecutive months, gaining 2.5 points since December’s 109.90. Compared to November’s 108.60 and October’s 107.00, the current level reflects a clear uptrend.
Year-over-year, the index is up 4.3% from February 2025’s 107.80, underscoring the breadth of the recovery. The last time the index was above 112 was in October 2022, highlighting the significance of this rebound.