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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan CB Leading Index climbed to 117.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan CB Leading Index climbed to 117.9% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.7% from June's 116.2% reading. The reading matched the 118.1% consensus. CB Leading Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CB Leading Index averaged 116.46%, vs 113.7% in the prior 3-month window. CB Leading Index is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
117.9
Actual
118.1
Consensus
116.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 118.08
Actual: 117.9
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CB Leading Index (Japan) was reported at 117.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 118.1% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 116.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 112.16%, ranging from 106.1% to 117.9% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 116.93%, up from the prior three at 116.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.68%). In September readings over the past 3 years, CB Leading Index has averaged 109.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CB Leading Index - JP
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About CB Leading Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The CB Leading Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall economic health and potential future performance of a country's economy. It is based on a composite of various economic factors, such as stock prices, consumer expectations, and interest rates, and is used by investors and policymakers to make informed decisions about the direction of the economy. The CB Leading Index provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy, making it a crucial tool for assessing market trends and making strategic financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 117.9 %, consensus 118.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 116.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 116.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |