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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machinery Orders MoM climbed to 5.2% in August 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Machinery Orders MoM climbed to 5.2% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 8.9% from July's -3.7% reading. The print exceeded the 3.0% consensus by 2.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.62%. Over the past 3 months, Machinery Orders MoM averaged 3.0%, vs -4.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.2
Actual
3
Consensus
-3.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.25
Actual: 5.2
Error: -1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Machinery Orders MoM (Japan) was reported at 5.2% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3% by 2.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.08%, ranging from -12.4% to 19.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.73%, up from the prior three at -4.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.64%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.24%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Machinery Orders MoM has averaged 0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Machinery Orders MoM - JP
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About Machinery Orders MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Machinery Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders placed for machinery and equipment by businesses in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the manufacturing sector, as well as overall business investment and economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a gauge of business confidence and potential future economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5.2 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -3.7 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 9.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |