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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machinery Orders MoM fell to -12.4% in May 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Machinery Orders MoM fell to -12.4% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 21.1% from April's 8.7% reading. The reading missed the -4.2% consensus by 8.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.97%. Over the past 3 months, Machinery Orders MoM averaged -0.35%, vs 4.05% in the prior 3-month window. Machinery Orders MoM is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-12.4
Actual
-4.2
Consensus
8.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.74 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -2.58
Actual: -12.4
Error: +9.82
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Machinery Orders MoM (Japan) was reported at -12.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.2% by 8.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 8.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.16%, ranging from -12.4% to 19.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.37%, down from the prior three at 0.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.03%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Machinery Orders MoM has averaged -5.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.74%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Machinery Orders MoM - JP
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About Machinery Orders MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Machinery Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of orders placed for machinery and equipment by businesses in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the manufacturing sector, as well as overall business investment and economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a gauge of business confidence and potential future economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -12.4 %, consensus -4.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 8.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -9.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |