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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 38.96 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 38.96 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.46 from August's 39.42 reading.
Latest Release
38.960000
Actual
—
Consensus
39.420000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Japan) was reported at 38.96 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 39.42. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 40.18, ranging from 37.82 to 42.42 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 39.44, up from the prior three at 38.70. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.37) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.01).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI - JP
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About Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for October registered at 38.960000, down from September's 39.420000, indicating a slight decline in consumer sentiment. The index remains below the 50 threshold, signaling continued contraction in confidence. Market participants will watch upcoming economic data for further clarity on Japan's recovery trajectory. Updated 10/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 38.96. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 39.42. Before that (Aug 2026): 39.94.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |