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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 39.42 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI fell to 39.42 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.52 from July's 39.94 reading.
Latest Release
39.420000
Actual
—
Consensus
39.940000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Japan) was reported at 39.42 in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 39.94. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 39.84, ranging from 35.21 to 42.42 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 39.70, up from the prior three at 39.59. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.97) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.99).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI - JP
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About Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for September registered 39.420000, down from August's 39.940000, indicating a slight decline in consumer sentiment. The index remains below the 50 threshold, signaling continued contraction in confidence. Market participants will watch upcoming economic data for further clarity on Japan's recovery trajectory. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 39.42. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 39.94. Before that (Jul 2026): 39.75.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |