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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash climbed to 52.8 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash climbed to 52.8 in January 2026, released February 2026, up 1.3 from December's 51.5 reading. The reading matched the 52 consensus.
Latest Release
52.800000
Actual
52.000000
Consensus
51.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.63
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 52.1
Actual: 52.8
Error: -0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Japan) was reported at 52.80 in January 2026. This beat the market consensus of 52.00 by 0.80. The reading rose from the previous value of 51.50. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash - JP
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash rose to 52.8 in January, beating the estimate of 52.0 and marking the highest reading since December 2022. This represents an increase from December’s 51.5, signaling a return to expansion after a year of contraction. The stronger PMI lifted market sentiment, with the yen strengthening and investors pricing in improved industrial growth prospects. Updated 2/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 52.8, consensus 52. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 49.7. Before that (Nov 2025): 48.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.