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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan 10-Year JGB Auction climbed to 3.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan 10-Year JGB Auction climbed to 3.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.11% from August's 3.0% reading.
Latest Release
3.101000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.995000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10-Year JGB Auction (Japan) was reported at 3.1% in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.41%, ranging from 1.66% to 3.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.98%, up from the prior three at 2.51%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year JGB Auction has averaged 1.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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10-Year JGB Auction - JP
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About 10-Year JGB Auction — Japan
DEFINITION
The 10-Year JGB Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest rates for 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). This auction is held by the Japanese Ministry of Finance and provides insight into the current state of the Japanese economy and investor sentiment towards government debt. The results of the auction can impact the overall bond market and serve as an important benchmark for interest rates in Japan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.101 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 2.995 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 2.84 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |