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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.3 Points in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.8 Points from August's 54.1 Points reading. The reading matched the 54.5 Points consensus.
Latest Release
53.300000
Actual
54.500000
Consensus
54.100000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 54.37
Actual: 53.3
Error: +1.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Japan) was reported at 53.30 Points in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 54.50 Points by 1.20 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 54.10 Points. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.88 Points, ranging from 48.20 Points to 55.10 Points across 18 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 53.83 Points, down from the prior three at 54.83 Points. In October readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has averaged 51.97 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - JP
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Japan
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 53.3 Points, consensus 54.5 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 54.1 Points. Before that (Sep 2026): 54.1 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |