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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.7 Points in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.7 Points in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1 Points from May's 54.8 Points reading. The reading matched the 54.5 Points consensus.
Latest Release
54.700000
Actual
54.500000
Consensus
54.800000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 54.57
Actual: 54.7
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Japan) was reported at 54.70 Points in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 54.50 Points by 0.20 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 54.80 Points. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.43 Points, ranging from 48.20 Points to 54.90 Points across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.70 Points, up from the prior three at 52.50 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoJ Press Conference (Jul 31) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - JP
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — Japan
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 54.7 Points, consensus 54.5 Points. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 54.9 Points. Before that (May 2026): 54.5 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |