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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Coincident Index fell to 117.9 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Coincident Index fell to 117.9 in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2 from April's 118.1 reading. The reading matched the 118.5 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.9. Over the past 3 months, Coincident Index averaged 117.48, vs 116.29 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
117.9
Actual
118.5
Consensus
118.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.89
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 119.14
Actual: 117.9
Error: +1.24
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Coincident Index (Japan) was reported at 117.90 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 118.50 by 0.60. The reading fell from the previous value of 118.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 115.84, ranging from 112.80 to 118.50 across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 118.17, up from the prior three at 116.93. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.69) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.14). In July readings over the past 3 years, Coincident Index has averaged 116.98.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.89.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Coincident Index - JP
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About Coincident Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Coincident Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the current state of the economy by analyzing key factors such as employment, industrial production, and personal income. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and direction of the economy, making it a valuable tool for investors and policymakers alike. With its ability to accurately reflect the current economic climate, the Coincident Index is an essential tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2014): actual 109.9, consensus 110.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |