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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Coincident Index climbed to 120.6 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Coincident Index climbed to 120.6 in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.7 from June's 118.9 reading. The reading matched the 118.8 consensus. Coincident Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Coincident Index averaged 118.24, vs 117.03 in the prior 3-month window. Coincident Index is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
120.6
Actual
118.8
Consensus
118.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.89
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 118.8
Actual: 120.6
Error: -1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Coincident Index (Japan) was reported at 120.60 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 118.80 by 1.80. The reading rose from the previous value of 118.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 116.30, ranging from 112.80 to 120.60 across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 119.10, up from the prior three at 118.17. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.96) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.04). In September readings over the past 3 years, Coincident Index has averaged 116.08.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.89.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Coincident Index - JP
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About Coincident Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Coincident Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the current state of the economy by analyzing key factors such as employment, industrial production, and personal income. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and direction of the economy, making it a valuable tool for investors and policymakers alike. With its ability to accurately reflect the current economic climate, the Coincident Index is an essential tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2014): actual 109.9, consensus 110.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |