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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Coincident Index fell to 118.7 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Coincident Index fell to 118.7 in August 2026, released October 2026, down 1.9 from July's 120.6 reading. The reading matched the 119.7 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 5.3. Over the past 3 months, Coincident Index averaged 119.16, vs 117.28 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
118.7
Actual
119.7
Consensus
120.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.05
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 119.89
Actual: 118.7
Error: +1.19
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Coincident Index (Japan) was reported at 118.70 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 119.70 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 120.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 116.81, ranging from 112.80 to 120.60 across 23 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 119.97, up from the prior three at 118.20. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.01) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.07). In October readings over the past 3 years, Coincident Index has averaged 114.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 16) and Balance of Trade (Oct 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Coincident Index - JP
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About Coincident Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Coincident Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the current state of the economy by analyzing key factors such as employment, industrial production, and personal income. It provides valuable insight into the overall health and direction of the economy, making it a valuable tool for investors and policymakers alike. With its ability to accurately reflect the current economic climate, the Coincident Index is an essential tool for making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2014): actual 109.9, consensus 110.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 5.2 | -3.7 | 3 | 4.10 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 18.6 | 11.2 | 15.7 | 17.15 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | -4.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -2.00 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -2.4 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -2.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 2.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.05 | Low |