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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machine Tool Orders YoY climbed to 52.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY climbed to 52.8% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 15.4% from May's 37.4% reading. The print exceeded the 37.4% consensus by 15.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 18.95%. Over the past 3 months, Machine Tool Orders YoY averaged 41.25%, vs 22.7% in the prior 3-month window. Machine Tool Orders YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
52.8
Actual
37.4
Consensus
37.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 41.75
Actual: 52.8
Error: -11.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 52.8% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 37.4% by 15.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 24.92%, ranging from 3.6% to 52.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 45.1%, up from the prior three at 24.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.33%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.44%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Machine Tool Orders YoY has averaged 20.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Machine Tool Orders YoY - JP
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About Machine Tool Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of orders placed for machine tools compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the demand for machine tools, which are essential for manufacturing and production industries. A positive YoY growth in machine tool orders indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative YoY growth may suggest a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This information can be valuable for investors, businesses, and policymakers in making informed decisions about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 52.8 %, consensus 37.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 37.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 45.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |