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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machine Tool Orders YoY climbed to 64.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY climbed to 64.7% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 14.3% from July's 50.4% reading. The print exceeded the 43.0% consensus by 21.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 27.31%. Over the past 3 months, Machine Tool Orders YoY averaged 51.6%, vs 36.87% in the prior 3-month window. Machine Tool Orders YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
64.7
Actual
43
Consensus
50.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 48.95
Actual: 64.7
Error: -15.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 64.7% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 43% by 21.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 35.26%, ranging from 10.6% to 64.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 55.97%, up from the prior three at 35.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 16.66%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.9%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Machine Tool Orders YoY has averaged 23.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Machine Tool Orders YoY - JP
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About Machine Tool Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of orders placed for machine tools compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the demand for machine tools, which are essential for manufacturing and production industries. A positive YoY growth in machine tool orders indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative YoY growth may suggest a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This information can be valuable for investors, businesses, and policymakers in making informed decisions about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 64.7 %, consensus 43 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 50.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 52.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |