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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machine Tool Orders YoY fell to 60.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY fell to 60.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 4.3% from August's 64.7% reading. The reading matched the 61.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 32.4%. Over the past 3 months, Machine Tool Orders YoY averaged 57.55%, vs 45.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
60.4
Actual
61
Consensus
64.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.58 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 68.53
Actual: 60.4
Error: +8.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 60.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 61% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 64.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37.55%, ranging from 10.6% to 64.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 58.5%, up from the prior three at 45.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.64%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Machine Tool Orders YoY - JP
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About Machine Tool Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of orders placed for machine tools compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the demand for machine tools, which are essential for manufacturing and production industries. A positive YoY growth in machine tool orders indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative YoY growth may suggest a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This information can be valuable for investors, businesses, and policymakers in making informed decisions about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 60.4 %, consensus 61 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 64.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 50.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |