Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Machine Tool Orders YoY fell to 37.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY fell to 37.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 7.7% from April's 45.1% reading. The reading matched the 37.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 16.47%. Over the past 3 months, Machine Tool Orders YoY averaged 36.6%, vs 21.35% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
37.4
Actual
37
Consensus
45.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 45.5
Actual: 37.4
Error: +8.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Japan) was reported at 37.4% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 37% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 45.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19.59%, ranging from -0.5% to 45.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 35.57%, up from the prior three at 20.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.91%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.41%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Machine Tool Orders YoY has averaged 15%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Machine Tool Orders YoY - JP
Loading chart data...
About Machine Tool Orders YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Machine Tool Orders YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of orders placed for machine tools compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator is used to assess the demand for machine tools, which are essential for manufacturing and production industries. A positive YoY growth in machine tool orders indicates a strong and growing economy, while a negative YoY growth may suggest a slowdown in manufacturing activity. This information can be valuable for investors, businesses, and policymakers in making informed decisions about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 37.4 %, consensus 37 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 45.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 28.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.