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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 18 in September 2016
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2016
Japan Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 18 in September 2016, released October 2016, down 1 from August's 19 reading. The reading matched the 18 consensus.
Latest Release
18.000000
Actual
18.000000
Consensus
19.000000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2016
Predicted: 18
Actual: 18
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (Japan) was reported at 18.00 in October 2016. This matched the market consensus of 18.00 exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 19.00.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 19.67, down from the prior three at 24.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4) and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2016.
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Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index - JP
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About Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of Japan's service sector. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the non-manufacturing industry, including sectors such as retail, transportation, and tourism. This index is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can indicate potential changes in consumer spending and economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2016): actual 18, consensus 18. Prior reading (Apr 2016): 19. Before that (Jan 2016): 22.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Monetary Base YoY | -13.7 | -13 | -13.00 | Low | |