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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan 40-Year JGB Auction climbed to 4.13% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan 40-Year JGB Auction climbed to 4.13% in September 2026, up 0.26% from August's 3.87% reading.
Latest Release
4.125000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.865000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
40-Year JGB Auction (Japan) was reported at 4.13% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.87%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.86%, up from the prior three at 3.53%. In September readings over the past 3 years, 40-Year JGB Auction has averaged 3.26%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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40-Year JGB Auction - JP
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About 40-Year JGB Auction — Japan
DEFINITION
The 40-Year JGB Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand and interest for 40-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in the market. It is a key event for investors and analysts as it provides insight into the current state of the Japanese economy and the confidence of investors in the country's long-term financial stability. The results of this auction can impact interest rates and bond yields, making it an important indicator for monitoring the overall health of the Japanese bond market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.125 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.84 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD, r=0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |