Eco Watchers Survey Current - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current
49.1
Actual
47.6
Consensus
47.1
Previous
Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey Current for November 2025 surprised with an actual reading of 49.10, beating the consensus estimate of 47.60 and rising from 47.10 last month, signaling a near-expansionary rebound in consumer sentiment. The 2.00-point increase reflects improving household economic confidence, driven by stronger spending intentions and labor market conditions, though still just below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. This upward momentum supports expectations of cautious BOJ policy tapering and may bolster domestic demand, influencing equity and bond markets in the near term. Updated 11/13/25
Eco Watchers Survey Current - JP
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Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
The latest Eco Watchers Survey Current for Japan, released on November 11, 2025, reveals a notable uptick in consumer sentiment and economic activity. The index rose to 49.10, surpassing both the market estimate of 47.60 and the previous reading of 47.10. This marks the highest level in over a year, signaling a potential shift in Japan’s economic momentum. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database and historical trends, this report provides a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the survey’s implications for Japan’s macroeconomic landscape.
The Eco Watchers Survey Current for Japan climbed to 49.10 in November 2025, a significant improvement from 47.10 in October and well above the 12-month average of 46.30. This index, which gauges household economic sentiment and spending intentions, is edging closer to the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The rise suggests growing consumer confidence amid a backdrop of moderate inflation and steady employment.
Drivers this month
Increased retail sales and durable goods purchases contributed 1.20 points.
Rising energy costs slightly offset gains, subtracting -0.30 points.
Policy pulse
The reading remains below the Bank of Japan’s inflation target of 2%, but the upward trend supports the central bank’s cautious stance on monetary easing. The survey’s improvement aligns with recent signals from the BOJ that it may begin tapering asset purchases if momentum continues.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened by 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.70%, reflecting optimism about domestic demand.
Core macroeconomic indicators underpinning the Eco Watchers Survey show a mixed but improving picture. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 1.10% QoQ, supported by consumer spending growth of 0.80%. Inflation remains subdued at 1.30% YoY, below the BOJ’s 2% target but trending upward from 1.00% six months ago. Unemployment held steady at 2.50%, near historic lows.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The BOJ’s yield curve control policy continues to anchor 10-year JGB yields near 0.25%. Financial conditions have eased slightly, with credit spreads narrowing by 5 basis points over the past month. The central bank’s cautious communication suggests a gradual exit from ultra-loose policy, contingent on sustained economic improvement.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Japan’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with the government maintaining a 1.20% of GDP stimulus package aimed at infrastructure and green investments. The budget deficit is projected at 4.50% of GDP for FY2025, slightly improved from 4.80% last year, reflecting higher tax revenues amid economic recovery.
The Eco Watchers Survey Current index rose to 49.10 in November 2025, up from 47.10 in October and well above the 12-month average of 46.30. This marks a reversal of the two-month decline observed in August and September, when the index hovered below 47. The upward momentum is driven by stronger consumer spending intentions and improved labor market perceptions.
Comparing historical data, the current reading is the highest since January 2025, when the index peaked at 49.50. The steady climb from a low of 45.20 in August 2025 indicates a gradual but sustained recovery in household sentiment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the release, the 2-year JGB yield rose by 3 basis points, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy. The USD/JPY currency pair dropped 0.40%, signaling yen strength amid improved domestic outlook.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in consumer sentiment, reversing a summer slump. The index’s approach to the 50 threshold suggests that Japan’s economy may be nearing a phase of modest expansion, supported by resilient consumption and labor market stability.
Looking ahead, the Eco Watchers Survey Current points to a cautiously optimistic economic trajectory for Japan. Three scenarios emerge based on current data and external factors:
Scenario Analysis
Bullish (30% probability): Continued improvement in consumer confidence leads to sustained GDP growth above 1.50% annually. Inflation edges closer to 2%, prompting the BOJ to begin policy normalization by mid-2026.
Base (50% probability): Moderate growth around 1.00% persists, with inflation remaining below target. The BOJ maintains current easing but signals gradual tapering. Consumer sentiment stabilizes near 49-50.
Bearish (20% probability): External shocks, such as geopolitical tensions or energy price spikes, dampen sentiment below 47. Economic growth slows below 0.50%, forcing the BOJ to extend accommodative measures.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Heightened tensions in East Asia and volatility in global energy markets pose downside risks. However, Japan’s diversified trade partners and strategic reserves mitigate immediate threats. Monitoring developments in China and Russia remains critical.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Japan’s aging population and labor force constraints continue to challenge long-term growth. However, advances in automation and green technology investments offer offsetting productivity gains. The Eco Watchers Survey’s rise may reflect early consumer adaptation to these structural shifts.
The November 2025 Eco Watchers Survey Current reading of 49.10 signals a meaningful rebound in Japan’s consumer sentiment and economic activity. While still shy of the expansionary 50 mark, the upward trend supports a cautiously optimistic outlook. Policymakers face a delicate balance between fostering growth and managing inflation risks amid evolving global uncertainties. Investors and analysts should watch for sustained momentum in consumption and labor markets as key indicators of Japan’s macro trajectory.
Key Markets Likely to React to Eco Watchers Survey Current
The Eco Watchers Survey Current is a vital gauge of Japan’s economic health, influencing several key markets. The Nikkei 225 (red N225) often tracks shifts in consumer sentiment closely, as it reflects domestic corporate earnings expectations. The USD/JPY forex pair (red USDJPY) responds swiftly to changes in economic outlook and BOJ policy signals. The Japanese government bond market, represented by the 2-year JGB futures (red JP2Y), is sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (red BTCUSD), can reflect risk sentiment changes tied to macroeconomic developments. Lastly, the USD/CNH pair (red USDCNH) is relevant due to Japan’s trade exposure to China and regional economic interlinkages.
Insight: Eco Watchers Survey vs. Nikkei 225 Since 2020
Year
Average Eco Watchers Survey
Nikkei 225 Annual Return (%)
2020
43.50
-5.00
2021
46.80
11.20
2022
44.90
-2.30
2023
47.50
7.80
2024
48.20
9.10
2025 (YTD)
47.80
6.50
The Eco Watchers Survey and Nikkei 225 returns show a positive correlation since 2020. Higher consumer sentiment readings tend to precede stronger equity market performance, underscoring the survey’s value as a leading economic indicator.
FAQ
What is the Eco Watchers Survey Current?
The Eco Watchers Survey Current measures household economic sentiment and spending intentions in Japan, reflecting near-term consumer confidence.
How does the Eco Watchers Survey impact Japan’s economy?
The survey influences monetary policy decisions, financial markets, and forecasts of consumer-driven GDP growth.
Why is the Eco Watchers Survey important for investors?
It provides early signals on consumption trends, helping investors anticipate shifts in corporate earnings and market sentiment.
Takeaway: The November 2025 Eco Watchers Survey Current’s rise to 49.10 signals improving consumer confidence, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for Japan’s economy and monetary policy trajectory.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
N225 – Nikkei 225 index, closely tracks consumer sentiment and economic activity in Japan.
USDJPY – USD/JPY forex pair, sensitive to BOJ policy and economic outlook shifts.
JP2Y – 2-year Japanese Government Bond futures, reflect inflation and monetary policy expectations.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin/USD, a proxy for global risk sentiment influenced by macroeconomic trends.
USDCNH – USD/CNH forex pair, relevant due to Japan’s trade exposure to China and regional economic dynamics.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.2
1.8
2
1.88
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
36.2
38.3
38.9
38.18
High
Monday, May 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
112.2
112.1
111.4
111.60
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.6
111.5
113.9
114.45
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0
0.02
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.30
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.2
2.18
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.53
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.6
54.3
53.8
53.82
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.5
49.6
49.7
50.15
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.3
52.2
52.28
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.9
7.7
-2.2
-0.15
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-462.5
366.5
-339.5
-180.45
High
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
8.3
7.3
11.1
11.45
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
2.7
-1.8
0.3
1.78
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
8.3
-5.1
9
8.40
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
9
7
8.50
Medium
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-2.4
2.2
0.1
-0.18
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.2
-3.9
-6.7
-6.72
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
4.4
-0.6
3.8
3.88
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
1.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.32
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.5
0
-0.4
-0.52
High
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-2
0
-1.5
-2.00
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.33
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.8
1.8
0.4
0.05
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-11.6
-3.8
-7.5
-8.43
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.22
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.92
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.4
49.8
50.4
49.82
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
48.5
51.2
51.3
50.65
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
3398.8
2644.2
3489.6
3524.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1.2
-0.5
-2.4
-2.12
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.2
1.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.9
111.5
111
111.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.4
112.1
111
111.20
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-1.5
-1.6
-0.6
-1.05
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.6
1.4
1.5
1.67
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.3
54.1
54.6
54.62
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
51.7
52.6
52.68
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38.3
39.5
39.7
38.98
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-12.8
-8.2
-7.6
-8.88
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
31.4
-11
4.3
9.55
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.7
-3.9
-6.6
-6.62
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
1.5
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
3.8
-0.6
3.4
3.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
4.7
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.26
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.8
2.6
2.6
2.48
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
1.4
2.9
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
111.6
112.3
110.9
111.45
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.8
112.00
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
48.2
48
48.45
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.6
54.1
54
54.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.6
51.7
52
52.08
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.70
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.2
3
2.93
Low
05:00
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
1.5
-0.5
0.8
0.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
366.5
-377.8
-280
-120.95
High
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
10
9
10.50
Medium
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-1.8
-10.9
-8
-6.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7.7
-1.7
-0.2
1.85
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.9
-1.5
-3.4
-3.42
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.5
-7.9
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.6
-6.7
-0.1
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.2
3
3.1
3.13
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.82
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8.5
-8
-5
-5.93
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.5
39
39.7
38.98
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
51.2
53
52.9
52.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
49.8
51.3
51.5
50.92
Low
Sunday, April 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
2644.2
438.2
3112.5
3147.42
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1.8
2
1.4
1.57
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.9
112.1
112
112.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.6
111.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-0.5
-6.3
-3
-2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.4
-2.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.7
50.6
52.3
52.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.1
52.9
54.9
54.92
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
4
13.5
9.2
6.60
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
10
8
11
10.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
32
33
33.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
27
27
30
28.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
-1
2
-2
-1.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
11
13
10
10.50
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.2
-7.5
-5.5
-6.78
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2
-2.02
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-6.7
1.4
1.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
4.6
2.1
3
3.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
1.5
0.2
0.4
0.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.30
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.5
109.9
109.9
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
112.1
115.9
110.2
110.75
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.23
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.2
3
3.00
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2
2.8
2.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0
0.2
0.22
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.9
52.9
53.4
53.42
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
50.6
50.9
50.98
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
7.8
11.9
5.3
5.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-379.4
-1760.3
-810.2
-651.15
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
0.5
-9.8
2.2
1.60
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
10
-1
3
4.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-7.9
0.2
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-6.7
1.2
-7.5
-7.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1.52
Low
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0
-0.1
0
0.00
High
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-1.7
1.9
-1
1.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-10.9
-0.7
-11.2
-9.72
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.08
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
-6.7
5.7
6.2
-0.25
Low
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.52
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8
-14.1
-10
-10.93
Low
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.9
5.2
3.8
3.83
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
2
-0.6
2.5
2.15
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
0.4
-3.2
1.1
0.60
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
53
52.5
52.4
51.75
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
51.3
50.2
50.1
49.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.2
116
115.4
115.95
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
110.5
110.1
110.30
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.93
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
438.2
744.3
-330.4
-295.48
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-6.3
-2.5
-4.3
-4.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.1
-0.9
0.4
0.38
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2
1
0.5
0.67
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.6
51.5
50.3
50.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.9
53.1
52.5
52.52
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
1.8
2.1
1.98
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.5
1.8
2.5
2.40
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Spending YoY
16.4
3.4
1.9
9.15
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.1
38
38.3
37.58
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
47.2
47.65
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-7.5
-4
-7.7
-8.98
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.1
0.4
4
9.25
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-7.5
1.4
-7.3
-7.22
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-2.9
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-0.7
-1.1
-1.12
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.35
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.6
116.2
116.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
108.1
110
110.20
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.3
1.8
1.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.10
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.1
53.2
53.22
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.3
51.5
51.6
51.68
Low
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
11.9
9.7
9.5
9.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-1758.3
68.9
-1925.9
-1766.85
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-9.6
-6.9
-8.4
-9.00
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-1
6
7
8.50
Medium
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.7
-4.9
2.5
4.55
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-0.7
-5
-1.4
0.08
Medium
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.7
-1.4
-0.3
-0.58
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.75
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
-0.9
1.8
1.88
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.3
0.28
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.8
5.3
4
4.03
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
High
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-0.4
-3.3
1.4
0.90
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.05
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-14.1
-9.6
-6
-6.93
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0
0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.12
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.2
51.8
51
50.42
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
52.5
50.4
49.7
49.05
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
744.3
1925.6
1018.9
1053.82
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.23
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
116.2
114.6
115.2
115.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110
108.1
109.4
109.60
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-0.9
-1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.5
-2.9
-2.1
-1.82
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1
0.2
1.3
1.47
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.5
50
51.1
51.18
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.1
51.5
52.7
52.72
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48
48.45
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38
37.2
37.6
36.88
High
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-4
-8.5
-6.2
-7.48
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
0.4
33.6
1.1
6.35
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.1
5.4
4.7
4.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
-1.4
0.7
0.68
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-2.9
1
0.5
0.42
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.8
-0.9
2.4
2.48
Medium
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.55
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.6
108.9
107.7
107.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.6
115.9
114.5
115.05
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.08
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.80
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.32
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.1
50
49.5
49.58
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.7
51.5
51
51.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48.2
48.65
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
62.1
-780.4
-122.1
36.95
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-6.8
-11.9
-5.3
-5.90
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
9.8
-0.2
9.1
9.45
Medium
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.10
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.08
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.73
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
0.3
1.5
-0.4
-1.55
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.4
1.1
-1.4
-1.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.9
-0.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-5
-2.2
0.2
1.68
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-4.9
0.7
-0.8
1.25
Medium
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
6
12
11
12.50
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.3
0
0.02
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0
0.3
-0.3
-0.28
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-9.9
-13.6
-9
-9.93
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.7
49.5
49.9
49.32
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
49.1
49.4
49.3
48.65
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.83
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
1925.6
2582.8
2385.1
2420.02
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
115.9
116
116.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.7
108.9
109
109.20
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.67
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.9
-2.5
-2.3
-2.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-1
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.42
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.00
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.38
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
36.1
36
35.28
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50
49.6
50.4
50.48
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.5
50.8
52
52.02
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.3
47.7
48.15
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Eco Watchers Survey Current Rises Sharply in November Japan November 2025 Eco Watchers Survey Current Shows Consumer Confidence Growth The Eco Watchers Survey Current for Japan, released on November 11, 2025, measures household economic sentiment and spending intentions, providing a timely snapshot of consumer confidence. This month’s index climbed to 49.10, beating expectations of 47.60 and improving from October’s 47.10 reading. The rise signals a stronger near-term outlook for Japan’s economy, edging closer to the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. According to Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Asia, “This jump in the Eco Watchers Survey Current suggests that consumer demand is gaining traction, which could support a gradual tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan.” The improvement reflects better labor market conditions and increased retail activity, despite some headwinds from rising energy costs. Investors responded positively, with the yen strengthening and equity markets rising, highlighting the survey’s role as a key barometer of Japan’s economic health.
The Eco Watchers Survey Current index rose to 49.10 in November 2025, up from 47.10 in October and well above the 12-month average of 46.30. This marks a reversal of the two-month decline observed in August and September, when the index hovered below 47. The upward momentum is driven by stronger consumer spending intentions and improved labor market perceptions.
Comparing historical data, the current reading is the highest since January 2025, when the index peaked at 49.50. The steady climb from a low of 45.20 in August 2025 indicates a gradual but sustained recovery in household sentiment.