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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Industrial Production YoY fell to 3.9% in July 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Industrial Production YoY fell to 3.9% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.0% from June's 4.9% reading. The reading matched the 4.1% consensus. Industrial Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 1.88%, vs 1.49% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
4.1
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.09
Actual: 3.9
Error: +0.19
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.44%, ranging from -2.2% to 4.9% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.3%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.28%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.42%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged -0.84%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - JP
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About Industrial Production YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.1 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |