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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Industrial Production YoY climbed to 4.2% in June 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Industrial Production YoY climbed to 4.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 6.3% from May's -2.1% reading. The print exceeded the 1.8% consensus by 2.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.17%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 0.58%, vs 1.43% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production YoY is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
1.8
Consensus
-2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.43
Actual: 4.2
Error: -2.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (Japan) was reported at 4.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.8% by 2.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.99%, ranging from -2.2% to 4.4% across 22 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.13%, down from the prior three at 2.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.86%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged -0.42%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - JP
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About Industrial Production YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 4.2 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -2.1 %. Before that (May 2026): -1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |