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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index climbed to 36 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index climbed to 36 in March 2026, up 2 from February's 34 reading. The print exceeded the 33 consensus by 3.
Latest Release
36.000000
Actual
33.000000
Consensus
34.000000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 33
Actual: 36
Error: -3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Japan) was reported at 36.00 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 33.00 by 3.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 34.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 34.67, up from the prior three at 34.00. In March readings over the past 3 years, Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index has averaged 35.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index - JP
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About Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index is a key economic indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of large non-manufacturing companies in Japan. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the service sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the country's GDP. This index is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can indicate potential changes in consumer spending and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 36, consensus 33. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 34. Before that (Jul 2025): 34.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.