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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan GDP External Demand QoQ climbed to 0.5% in Q2 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Japan GDP External Demand QoQ climbed to 0.5% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from March's 0.3% reading. The reading matched the 0.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.03%. GDP External Demand QoQ is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.6
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP External Demand QoQ (Japan) was reported at 0.5% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.5% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, up from the prior three at 0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.57%). In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP External Demand QoQ has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP External Demand QoQ - JP
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About GDP External Demand QoQ — Japan
DEFINITION
GDP External Demand QoQ is a key economic indicator that measures the change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) from quarter to quarter, specifically focusing on the impact of external demand. This indicator provides valuable insights into a country's economic performance and its dependence on international trade and global market conditions. It is often used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to assess the overall health of an economy and make informed decisions. A positive QoQ growth in GDP External Demand indicates a strong demand for a country's goods and services in the global market, while a negative growth may signal a decline in international demand and potential economic challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |