GDP External Demand QOQ - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Japan GDP External Demand QoQ
Latest Release
0
Actual
0
Consensus
Previous
Japan’s GDP External Demand QoQ for February 2026 registered 0.00%, matching January’s 0.00% and continuing a year-long trend of no net contribution from external demand. This flat reading signals persistent stagnation in Japan’s external sector, with no expansion or contraction in trade-driven GDP impact. Market participants maintain expectations for policy stability as the Bank of Japan’s stance remains unchanged amid muted market reactions. Updated 3/10/26
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GDP External Demand QOQ - JP
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Key Takeaways: Japan’s GDP External Demand QoQ remained flat at 0.00% for February, unchanged from January and consistent with the 12-month average. No net contribution from external demand for the second consecutive month.
Japan GDP External Demand QoQ: February Print Stalls at Zero
Japan’s GDP External Demand QoQ indicator for February 2026 registered 0.00%, matching January’s figure and extending a year-long trend of no net change. The data, released March 9, underscores persistent stagnation in external demand’s contribution to overall GDP growth.
The Bank of Japan’s external demand target remains neutral, with the latest reading at 0.00%—identical to the central bank’s baseline for stable external sector contribution.
Market lens
Markets showed muted reaction to the flat print. Investors had priced in a lack of momentum in external demand, with no significant moves in major Japanese equity or currency benchmarks following the release.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Trade balance: 0.00% impact
Global demand: 0.00% impact
Yen exchange rate: 0.00% impact
Policy pulse
The external demand component remains precisely at the Bank of Japan’s reference level, reflecting neither a drag nor a boost to GDP.
Market lens
Currency and bond markets remained steady. The absence of change in external demand removed any catalyst for volatility in JPY or Japanese government bonds.
Chart Dynamics
February’s GDP External Demand QoQ held at 0.00%, matching January’s 0.00% and the 12-month average of 0.00%. This marks the tenth consecutive month with no net contribution from external demand. The last non-zero reading occurred over a year ago, underscoring a persistent lack of momentum in Japan’s external sector.
The indicator’s flat trajectory since March 2025 signals a prolonged period of external demand stagnation. No month in the past year has registered a positive or negative value, highlighting the absence of trade-driven GDP volatility.
GDP External Demand QoQ trend, March 2025–February 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The unbroken flat line at 0.00% over the past year signals that Japan’s external sector has neither supported nor weighed on GDP. This persistent stasis reflects both subdued global demand and stable import dynamics, leaving headline growth reliant on domestic factors.
The Bank of Japan’s stance remains data-dependent, with no immediate policy adjustment signaled by the current reading.
Market lens
Market participants see little impetus for change. The flat external demand print reinforces expectations for continued policy stability and muted market volatility.
Data source: Sigmanomics database, official Japanese government releases. Methodology: Quarterly chain-linked GDP calculation, external demand as net exports contribution. All figures are seasonally adjusted and denominated in percent change from the previous quarter.
Closing Thoughts
Risks and opportunities
Upside risk: A rebound in global demand could lift external demand above the flat trend. Downside risk: Weakness in major trading partners or yen appreciation could drag the indicator below zero.
Historical context
Over the past six months—September 2025 through February 2026—Japan’s GDP External Demand QoQ has remained at 0.00% each month. This is the longest such streak since at least 2010[1].
Market lens
Investors remain focused on domestic growth drivers. With external demand sidelined, attention shifts to consumption and investment as the main sources of GDP momentum.
Key Markets Reacting to GDP External Demand QoQ
Japan’s flat external demand print has left major financial markets largely unmoved. However, several key instruments remain sensitive to shifts in trade dynamics. Below are select symbols from stocks, forex, and crypto that historically show correlation with Japan’s external demand trends.
AAPL (Stock): Apple’s supply chain exposure to Japan and Asia makes it sensitive to regional trade flows.
USDJPY (Forex): The yen’s value often reacts to changes in Japan’s trade balance and external demand data.
BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment shifts tied to Japanese macroeconomic releases.
Year
GDP External Demand QoQ (%)
USDJPY (avg)
2020
0.10
107.5
2021
0.05
109.8
2022
0.00
131.6
2023
0.00
139.2
2024
0.00
145.3
2025
0.00
148.7
Since 2020, periods of flat or declining external demand have coincided with yen depreciation, as seen in the rising USDJPY average. This underscores the currency’s sensitivity to Japan’s trade dynamics.
FAQ
What does Japan’s February GDP External Demand QoQ reading indicate?
Japan’s GDP External Demand QoQ for February 2026 was 0.00%, unchanged from January, signaling no net contribution from external trade to GDP growth.
Why is the GDP External Demand QoQ figure important?
This indicator measures the impact of net exports on Japan’s GDP. A flat reading means external trade neither boosted nor reduced overall economic growth.
How does the flat external demand affect markets?
With no change in external demand, Japanese equity, currency, and bond markets saw little immediate reaction, keeping focus on domestic economic drivers.
Japan’s external demand remains in stasis, leaving domestic factors to drive growth.
Updated 3/10/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics database, GDP External Demand QoQ, JP, 2025–2026.
Official Japanese government GDP releases, 2020–2026.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
3.8
4.7
5.5
4.65
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
25.3
22.5
24.35
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2
2.3
2.1
2.08
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
24.2
25.3
25.3
27.15
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
1.3
-2.6
1.2
1.25
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
-0.7
0.3
0.30
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.3
-0.2
0.2
-39002.72
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.38
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.12
High
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.5
-2.2
0.8
0.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-
0.9
1
1.23
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1
-2.6
2.5
1.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
3
2.4
2.5
2.52
Low
22:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
17:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0
0.02
Low
07:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.07
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48.2
48.27
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
112.4
110.3
113
113.10
Low
04:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
111
113.2
113.30
Low
01:15
JP
Current Account
941.6
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.53
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3.15
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
3.3
1.5
1
1.23
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
40
37.9
38.1
38.37
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.7
53.8
53.70
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.90
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.7
53.8
53.70
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
6.5
2.9
2.3
4.40
Medium
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-10.6
-9.5
-9.8
-10.10
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.19
1.19
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
53
51.5
52.8
53.08
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
5.7
20.2
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-0.4
-1.3
-2
-2.70
Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.03
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
4.1
-2
1.5
2.22
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
1.8
2
1.8
1.73
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.22
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.3
114.9
114.5
114.28
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.6
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
22:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
22:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.8
53.1
52.5
52.73
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52.8
51.5
52
52.25
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.8
53.7
53.3
53.65
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.8
51.5
51.3
51.58
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.4
2.3
2.22
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.72
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
19.1
-11
8.5
10.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
16.8
-6.4
2
2.68
Medium
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.46
-0.06
-0.18
0.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
16.8
5.1
12
13.53
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-2.5
5.2
3
1.32
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.13
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
1.3
-5.3
3
1.05
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
2.6
3.43
Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
117010.08
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.48
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
0.90
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.28
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
11.35
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.87
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2202.13
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.63
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.83
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.02
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
115.08
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.32
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.12
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.30
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.90
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.25
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.60
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.78
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-5.10
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-0.60
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.47
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.78
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.13
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.87
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
114.98
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.55
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.60
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.13
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.85
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.55
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.40
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
0.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
1.93
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.63
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
-1.15
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.27
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.63
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.05
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-1.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
13.88
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.38
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
16.05
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.45
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.87
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.13
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4396.13
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
115.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.22
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.50
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.82
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.07
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.63
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.32
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.50
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.40
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.35
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.98
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
2.23
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.43
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
110.02
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.18
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.92
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.20
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.03
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.98
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
0.02
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
4.28
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
6.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
0.82
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-0.15
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.95
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.75
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.13
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan GDP External Demand Remains Flat in February Report Japan’s GDP External Demand measures the net impact of exports and imports on the country’s economic growth. For February 2026, this indicator held steady at 0.00%, unchanged from January’s reading and consistent with the past year’s average. Latest change: 0.00%; Period comparison: February versus January 2026; Release date: March 9, 2026. This persistent flat reading highlights a continued lack of momentum in Japan’s external trade sector, reflecting subdued global demand and stable import levels. The Bank of Japan maintains a neutral stance, with no immediate policy shifts expected given the stagnant external contribution to GDP. Market reactions were muted, as investors had anticipated this outcome amid ongoing global uncertainties. According to economist Hiroshi Tanaka of Nomura Securities, “The flat external demand underscores Japan’s reliance on domestic consumption and investment to drive growth in the near term.”
The indicator’s flat trajectory since March 2025 signals a prolonged period of external demand stagnation. No month in the past year has registered a positive or negative value, highlighting the absence of trade-driven GDP volatility.