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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output MoM held to 0.2% in September 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output MoM held to 0.2% in September 2026, released October 2026. The print came in hotter than the 0.1% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. PPI Core Output MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.67% in the prior 3-month window. PPI Core Output MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: 0.2
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.2% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from -0.8% to 0.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.37%, down from the prior three at 0.67%. In October readings over the past 3 years, PPI Core Output MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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PPI Core Output MoM - UK
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About PPI Core Output MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output MoM (Producer Price Index Core Output Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, excluding volatile sectors such as food and energy. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive change in PPI Core Output MoM indicates an increase in production costs, which can potentially lead to higher consumer prices, while a negative change suggests a decrease in production costs.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |