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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output MoM climbed to 0.7% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output MoM climbed to 0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.5% from March's 0.2% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. PPI Core Output MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output MoM averaged -0.3%, vs 0.1% in the prior 3-month window. PPI Core Output MoM is now the highest in 44 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.15
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.7% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.05%, ranging from -0.8% to 0.7% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.12%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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PPI Core Output MoM - UK
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About PPI Core Output MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output MoM (Producer Price Index Core Output Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, excluding volatile sectors such as food and energy. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive change in PPI Core Output MoM indicates an increase in production costs, which can potentially lead to higher consumer prices, while a negative change suggests a decrease in production costs.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.