Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output MoM fell to 0.5% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output MoM fell to 0.5% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2% from May's 0.7% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.2% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.16%. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output MoM averaged 0.75%, vs -0.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 0.5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from -0.8% to 0.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.67%, up from the prior three at -0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.13%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
PPI Core Output MoM - UK
Loading chart data...
About PPI Core Output MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output MoM (Producer Price Index Core Output Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, excluding volatile sectors such as food and energy. This indicator provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive change in PPI Core Output MoM indicates an increase in production costs, which can potentially lead to higher consumer prices, while a negative change suggests a decrease in production costs.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |