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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Input MoM climbed to -1.7% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom PPI Input MoM climbed to -1.7% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2% from June's -1.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.0% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.6%. Over the past 3 months, PPI Input MoM averaged -0.9%, vs 2.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1.7
Actual
0
Consensus
-1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.63
Actual: -1.7
Error: +1.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Input MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at -1.7% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 1.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.01%, ranging from -2% to 2.4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.17%, down from the prior three at 1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.31%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.56%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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PPI Input MoM - UK
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About PPI Input MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Input MoM (Producer Price Index Input Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the average prices paid by domestic producers for their inputs on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the cost of production for businesses and can impact inflation and consumer prices. It is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as a gauge of overall economic health and potential future price trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1.7 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -2 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bullish GBP, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |