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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.4% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.4% from March's 2.0% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.9% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. PPI Core Output YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output YoY averaged 1.95%, vs 3.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.4
Actual
1.9
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.25
Actual: 2.4
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.9% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.4%, down from the prior three at 2.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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PPI Core Output YoY - UK
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About PPI Core Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output YoY (Producer Price Index Core Output Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding volatile food and energy prices, over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive PPI Core Output YoY indicates rising prices, while a negative reading suggests deflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 1.9 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.