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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.9% in September 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from August's 2.8% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.47%. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output YoY averaged 2.75%, vs 2.43% in the prior 3-month window. PPI Core Output YoY is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.78
Actual: 2.9
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.9% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.75%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.8%, up from the prior three at 2.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 30) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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PPI Core Output YoY - UK
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About PPI Core Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output YoY (Producer Price Index Core Output Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding volatile food and energy prices, over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive PPI Core Output YoY indicates rising prices, while a negative reading suggests deflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 2.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | UK | Auto Production YoY | 38.6 | 6.1 | 5 | 21.80 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.914 | 2.683 | 2.2 | 2.06 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.20 | Low |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 53.44 | 54.81 | 54 | 53.72 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 3.87 | 4.17 | 4.2 | 4.04 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 5.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 6.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.08 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |