Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.6% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.3% from May's 2.3% reading. The print came in hotter than the 2.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.18%. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output YoY averaged 2.35%, vs 2.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.3
Consensus
2.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: 2.6
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.6% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.3% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.73%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.5% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.43%, down from the prior three at 2.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.56%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.21%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
PPI Core Output YoY - UK
Loading chart data...
About PPI Core Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output YoY (Producer Price Index Core Output Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding volatile food and energy prices, over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive PPI Core Output YoY indicates rising prices, while a negative reading suggests deflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |