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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.8% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY climbed to 2.8% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2% from June's 2.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. PPI Core Output YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Core Output YoY averaged 2.45%, vs 2.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: 2.8
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
PPI Core Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.74%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.5% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.57%, up from the prior three at 2.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.53%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.13%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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PPI Core Output YoY - UK
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About PPI Core Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Core Output YoY (Producer Price Index Core Output Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding volatile food and energy prices, over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into inflationary pressures in the economy and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive PPI Core Output YoY indicates rising prices, while a negative reading suggests deflationary pressures.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |