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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Output YoY climbed to 4.0% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom PPI Output YoY climbed to 4.0% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.0% from March's 3.0% reading. The print came in hotter than the 2.8% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. PPI Output YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Output YoY averaged 2.15%, vs 2.95% in the prior 3-month window. PPI Output YoY is now the highest in 35 months.
Latest Release
4
Actual
2.8
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.35
Actual: 4
Error: -1.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Bullish UK | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.8% by 1.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, up from the prior three at 2.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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PPI Output YoY - UK
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About PPI Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Output YoY stands for Producer Price Index Output Year-over-Year. It is a financial indicator that measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to track inflation and can provide insight into the overall health of the economy. A higher PPI Output YoY may indicate rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower PPI Output YoY may suggest a slower economy. It is an important tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to monitor and analyze economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.