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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Output YoY fell to 3.5% in June 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
United Kingdom PPI Output YoY fell to 3.5% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.2% from May's 3.7% reading. The print came in cooler than the 4.0% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.68%. Over the past 3 months, PPI Output YoY averaged 4.0%, vs 2.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
4
Consensus
3.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.3
Actual: 3.5
Error: +0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.24%, ranging from 1.7% to 4% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.83%, up from the prior three at 2.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.78%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.56%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Jul 31) and S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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PPI Output YoY - UK
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About PPI Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Output YoY stands for Producer Price Index Output Year-over-Year. It is a financial indicator that measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to track inflation and can provide insight into the overall health of the economy. A higher PPI Output YoY may indicate rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower PPI Output YoY may suggest a slower economy. It is an important tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to monitor and analyze economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 39 | 29 | 29 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 69 | 79 | 79 | 74.00 | Medium |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.07 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.28 | Medium |