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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Output YoY fell to 3.1% in July 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
United Kingdom PPI Output YoY fell to 3.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.4% from June's 3.5% reading. The reading matched expectations. PPI Output YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Output YoY averaged 3.75%, vs 2.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.08
Actual: 3.1
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Output YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 3.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.23%, ranging from 1.7% to 4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.53%, up from the prior three at 2.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.73%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.46%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change (Sep 15) and Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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PPI Output YoY - UK
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About PPI Output YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Output YoY stands for Producer Price Index Output Year-over-Year. It is a financial indicator that measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to track inflation and can provide insight into the overall health of the economy. A higher PPI Output YoY may indicate rising prices and potential inflationary pressures, while a lower PPI Output YoY may suggest a slower economy. It is an important tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to monitor and analyze economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | HMRC Payrolls Change | -13 | -4 | 37.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Claimant Count Change | -11 | 8.3 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Employment Change | 83 | 70 | 82.50 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings excl. Bonus | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Average Earnings incl. Bonus | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.10 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 5 | 4.95 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -0.6 | -0.75 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.00 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.10 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.1 | 2.60 | Low | |