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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom PPI Output MoM held to 1.4% in April 2026
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
United Kingdom PPI Output MoM held to 1.4% in April 2026, released May 2026. The print came in hotter than the 1.0% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. PPI Output MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PPI Output MoM averaged 0.2%, vs 0.05% in the prior 3-month window. PPI Output MoM is now the highest in 44 months.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
1
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 1.4
Error: -0.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Output MoM (United Kingdom) was reported at 1.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.4% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.29%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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PPI Output MoM - UK
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About PPI Output MoM — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
PPI Output MoM stands for Producer Price Index Output Month-over-Month. It is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services on a monthly basis. This indicator is used to track inflation and can provide insights into the overall health of the economy. A positive PPI Output MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a negative reading suggests a decrease. It is an important tool for businesses, policymakers, and investors to monitor and analyze the trends in producer prices.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.