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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Balance of Trade Non-EU climbed to -9.66B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
United Kingdom Balance of Trade Non-EU climbed to -9.66B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.79B from July's -10.45B reading. The reading matched the -9.3B consensus.
Latest Release
-9.660000
Actual
-9.300000
Consensus
-10.450000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade Non-EU (United Kingdom) was reported at -9.66 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -9.30 billion by 0.36 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -10.45 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC GBP speculative net positions (Oct 9) and BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade Non-EU - UK
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About Balance of Trade Non-EU — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK’s Balance of Trade Non-EU for August came in at -9.660 billion GBP, missing the estimate of -9.300 billion but improving from July’s -10.450 billion. The trade deficit narrowed month-over-month, indicating a slight easing in external trade pressures. Market focus now shifts to upcoming trade data and Bank of England policy signals amid ongoing economic adjustments. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -9.66 B, consensus -9.3 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -10.45 B. Before that (May 2026): -7.14 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | House Price Index YoY | 0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 06:00 | UK | House Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 09:00 | UK | BBA Mortgage Rate | 6.58 | 6.58 | 6.6 | 6.59 | Low |
| 23:01 | UK | RICS House Price Balance | -32 | -28 | -30 | -31.00 | Medium |