Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Trade Balance fell to -21.18B in August 2025
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2025
United Kingdom Trade Balance fell to -21.18B in August 2025, released October 2025, down 0.53B from July's -20.65B reading. The reading matched the -21.8B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -11.38B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -10.47B, vs -8.27B in the prior 3-month window. Trade Balance is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-21.18
Actual
-21.8
Consensus
-20.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.15 billion
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -21.8
Actual: -21.18
Error: -0.62
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -21.18 billion in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of -21.80 billion by 0.62 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -20.65 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -14.04 billion, down from the prior three at -8.27 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Gov Bailey Speech (Oct 14) and Industrial Production MoM (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
SHARE
Trade Balance - UK
Loading chart data...
About Trade Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual -8.29 B. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -10.16 B. Before that (Jun 2025): -10.78 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.82) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output YoY | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.95 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.30 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade Non-EU | -9.66 | -9.9 | -9.90 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Balance of Trade | -3.45 | -3.6 | -2.17 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Industrial Production YoY | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 06:00 | UK | Goods Trade Balance | -20.97 | -21.8 | -19.33 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Manufacturing Production YoY | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 06:00 | UK | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 06:00 | UK | Construction Output MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.25 | Low | |
| 11:00 | UK | NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Low | |