Loading page content
Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Trade Balance fell to -21.18B in August 2025
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2025
United Kingdom Trade Balance fell to -21.18B in August 2025, released October 2025, down 0.53B from July's -20.65B reading. The reading matched the -21.8B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -11.38B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -10.47B, vs -8.27B in the prior 3-month window. Trade Balance is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-21.18
Actual
-21.8
Consensus
-20.65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.15 billion
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -21.8
Actual: -21.18
Error: -0.62
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (United Kingdom) was reported at -21.18 billion in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of -21.80 billion by 0.62 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -20.65 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -14.04 billion, down from the prior three at -8.27 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoE Consumer Credit (Jul 29) and Mortgage Approvals (Jul 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
SHARE
Trade Balance - UK
Loading chart data...
About Trade Balance — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual -8.29 B. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -10.16 B. Before that (Jun 2025): -10.78 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.82) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Monday, July 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | UK | CBI Distributive Trades | -26 | -54 | -45 | -35.50 | Medium |
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:30 | UK | Net Lending to Individuals | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.50 | Low | |
| 08:30 | UK | BoE Consumer Credit | 1.662 | 1.7 | 1.70 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Approvals | 56.21 | 57.1 | 57.10 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending | 2.89 | 3.95 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 08:30 | UK | M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 23:01 | UK | Car Production YoY | 3.2 | -0.5 | -3.10 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | UK | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Hike | 29 | 29 | 29.00 | Medium | |
| 11:00 | UK | BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 79 | 79 | 79.00 | Medium | |