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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Balance of Trade Non-EU climbed to -5.29B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
United Kingdom Balance of Trade Non-EU climbed to -5.29B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.9B from August's -8.19B reading. The print exceeded the -9.9B consensus by 4.61B.
Latest Release
-5.290000
Actual
-9.900000
Consensus
-8.190000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade Non-EU (United Kingdom) was reported at -5.29 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -9.90 billion by 4.61 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -8.19 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.13 billion, ranging from -15.19 billion to -5.29 billion across 6 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -8.47 billion, up from the prior three at -11.79 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Construction PMI (Nov 5) and BoE MPC Vote Cut (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade Non-EU - UK
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About Balance of Trade Non-EU — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
The UK’s Balance of Trade Non-EU for September came in at -5.290 billion GBP, beating the estimate of -9.900 billion GBP. This improved from August’s -9.660 billion GBP, indicating a narrowing trade deficit. The stronger trade position may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming economic data and Bank of England policy decisions. Updated 10/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -5.29 B, consensus -9.9 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -9.66 B. Before that (Jun 2026): -10.45 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - UK Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices YoY | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 07:00 | UK | Nationwide Housing Prices MoM | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Medium |
| 09:30 | UK | Inflation Rate | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High |