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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Housing Starts YoY fell to -2.7% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Housing Starts YoY fell to -2.7% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 8.8% from August's 6.1% reading. The reading missed the 2.9% consensus by 5.6%. Housing Starts YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts YoY averaged 7.15%, vs 21.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.7
Actual
2.9
Consensus
6.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: -2.7
Error: +5.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts YoY (Japan) was reported at -2.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.9% by 5.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.69%, ranging from -8.5% to 33.9% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.87%, down from the prior three at 21.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.67%) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.14%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts YoY has averaged -4.35%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Housing Starts YoY - JP
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About Housing Starts YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Housing Starts YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the number of new residential construction projects started in a given period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the housing market and the overall economy, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. A positive YoY growth in housing starts indicates a strong and growing housing market, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown or contraction. Investors and policymakers closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -2.7 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 8.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |