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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Housing Starts YoY climbed to 11.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Housing Starts YoY climbed to 11.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 40.7% from March's -29.3% reading. The reading missed the 15.5% consensus by 4.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -12.05%. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts YoY averaged -17.1%, vs -3.4% in the prior 3-month window. Housing Starts YoY is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
11.4
Actual
15.5
Consensus
-29.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.89 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 15.4
Actual: 11.4
Error: +4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts YoY (Japan) was reported at 11.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 15.5% by 4.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -29.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -7.03%, ranging from -34.4% to 11.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.03%, up from the prior three at -2.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.14%) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.03%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts YoY has averaged -0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.89%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Housing Starts YoY - JP
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About Housing Starts YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Housing Starts YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the annual change in the number of new residential construction projects started in a given period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health of the housing market and the overall economy, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. A positive YoY growth in housing starts indicates a strong and growing housing market, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown or contraction. Investors and policymakers closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 11.4 %, consensus 15.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -29.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -4.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.