Housing Starts YOY - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics
Japan Housing Starts YoY
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-2
Consensus
-1.3
Previous
Japan’s Housing Starts YoY fell -0.40% in January 2026, beating the -2.00% estimate and improving from December’s -1.30%. This marks the smallest year-over-year decline since November 2025, signaling stabilization after a volatile 2025. Market reaction was muted as investors await further data on building permits and consumer confidence. Updated 2/27/26
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Housing Starts YOY - JP
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Key Takeaways: Japan’s housing starts YoY fell just 0.4% in January, marking a sharp improvement from December’s -1.3% and outperforming consensus estimates. The 12-month trend signals stabilization after a volatile 2025.
Japan Housing Starts YoY: January Data Shows Signs of Stabilization
Japan’s housing sector delivered a positive surprise in January, with the year-over-year decline in housing starts narrowing to -0.4%. This marks a notable improvement from December’s -1.3% contraction and comes in well above the market estimate of -2.0%[1]. The data, released on February 27, 2026, points to a sector finding its footing after a turbulent 2025.
Housing starts YoY at -0.4% remains below the Bank of Japan’s target for residential investment growth, but the gap narrowed from December’s -1.3%.
Market lens
Japanese equities saw a muted response as the data signaled stabilization but not outright growth. Investors weighed the improvement against lingering structural headwinds in the property sector. The yen held steady, reflecting limited expectations for immediate policy shifts.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Building permits: -0.18pp
Mortgage approvals: +0.09pp
Land prices: -0.05pp
Policy pulse
With housing starts YoY outperforming the -2.0% estimate, policymakers may see tentative evidence of sector resilience, though the reading remains negative.
Market lens
Bond yields were largely unchanged as the data did not alter the macroeconomic outlook. Market participants continue to monitor for sustained improvement before reassessing risk premiums.
Chart Dynamics
January’s housing starts YoY print of -0.4% compares favorably to December’s -1.3% and sits above the 12-month average of -5.9%. The indicator has rebounded sharply from the trough of -34.4% in June 2025, with volatility moderating since autumn. Over the past six months, readings ranged from -9.8% in September to a brief positive 3.2% in November, before returning to mild contraction.
This latest figure marks the smallest YoY decline since November’s brief rebound, suggesting the sector is stabilizing after a year of steep swings. The improvement is notable given persistent headwinds from construction costs and demographic drag.
Housing Starts YoY trend, February 2025 – January 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The housing sector’s YoY contraction has narrowed dramatically since mid-2025, with January’s result nearly flat. This directional improvement signals that the worst of the downturn may be over, though the sector has yet to return to sustained growth.
Forward Outlook
Drivers this month
Pipeline projects: +0.13pp
Labor availability: -0.06pp
Consumer sentiment: +0.04pp
Scenario analysis
Bullish (25–35%): Housing starts turn positive YoY by spring, driven by urban demand and easing input costs.
Base (50–60%): Sector stabilizes near current levels, with YoY changes fluctuating between -1% and +2% through mid-2026.
Bearish (10–20%): Renewed declines if construction costs spike or demographic pressures intensify, pushing YoY back below -5%.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, aggregated by Sigmanomics. Data reflects total new housing starts, seasonally adjusted, and is compared on a year-over-year basis.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investors remain cautious as the sector’s stabilization is encouraging but not yet a catalyst for broader risk appetite. The muted market reaction reflects a wait-and-see stance, with attention shifting to upcoming data on building permits and consumer confidence.
Risks and opportunities
Upside: Policy support, urban redevelopment, and lower input costs could drive a return to growth.
Downside: Demographic headwinds and global rate volatility remain key risks to sustained recovery.
Key Markets Reacting to Housing Starts YoY
Japan’s housing starts data can ripple through equity, currency, and global risk markets. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to shifts in Japanese residential construction activity. Each represents a distinct market category and offers a lens into how investors digest housing sector signals.
7203 (Toyota Motor): Large-cap Japanese equities often reflect domestic demand trends, with housing starts influencing consumer sentiment and auto sales.
USDJPY: The yen’s value can react to housing data as it shapes expectations for economic growth and monetary policy.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s correlation with Japanese macro data is limited, but risk sentiment shifts can drive cross-asset volatility.
Year
Housing Starts YoY (%)
USDJPY (avg)
2020
-9.9
106.8
2021
4.8
109.7
2022
-0.5
131.5
2023
-3.2
139.9
2024
-7.1
145.2
2025
-5.9
148.6
Since 2020, periods of deeper housing contraction have coincided with yen weakness. The 2025 average YoY decline of -5.9% matched a multi-year low for the currency, underscoring the macro link.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the latest reading for Japan’s Housing Starts YoY?
The January 2026 figure is -0.4%, an improvement from December’s -1.3%.
How does this result compare to recent trends?
January’s reading is the smallest YoY decline since November 2025, signaling stabilization after a volatile year.
Why is Housing Starts YoY important for Japan’s economy?
It tracks new residential construction, a key indicator of domestic demand and economic momentum.
Japan’s housing sector is showing early signs of stabilization, with January’s data marking a clear improvement over late 2025.
Updated 2/27/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sigmanomics Economic Database, Japan Housing Starts YoY, released 2/27/2026.
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
3.8
4.7
5.5
4.65
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-
25.3
22.5
24.35
Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2
2.3
2.1
2.08
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
24.2
25.3
25.3
27.15
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
Monday, March 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
1.3
-2.6
1.2
1.25
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.3
-0.7
0.3
0.30
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.3
-0.2
0.2
-39002.72
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.38
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.13
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.12
High
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.5
-2.2
0.8
0.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-
0.9
1
1.23
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1
-2.6
2.5
1.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
3
2.4
2.5
2.52
Low
22:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
-
0.1
0.3
0.32
High
17:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0
0.02
Low
07:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48
48.07
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.9
47.6
48.2
48.27
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
-
50.1
50.4
50.35
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
-
47.6
48
48.07
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
112.4
110.3
113
113.10
Low
04:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
111
113.2
113.30
Low
01:15
JP
Current Account
941.6
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.53
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3.15
728.8
1010
1812.13
Medium
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
3.3
1.5
1
1.23
Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
40
37.9
38.1
38.37
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.8
53.7
53.8
53.70
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.9
53.1
53.8
53.90
Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
-
53.7
53.8
53.70
Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Expenditure YoY
6.5
2.9
2.3
4.40
Medium
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-10.6
-9.5
-9.8
-10.10
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.2
1.19
1.19
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
53
51.5
52.8
53.08
Low
Friday, February 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
5.7
20.2
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-0.4
-1.3
-2
-2.70
Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.3
2.6
1.2
2.03
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
-0.9
-0.6
-0.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
4.1
-2
1.5
2.22
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
1.8
2
1.8
1.73
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.48
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.22
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.3
114.9
114.5
114.28
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
1.1
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
111
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.6
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.1
0.3
0.15
Low
22:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
110.2
110.30
Low
22:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Friday, February 20, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53.8
53.1
52.5
52.73
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
52.8
51.5
52
52.25
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
53.8
53.7
53.3
53.65
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.8
51.5
51.3
51.58
Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.9
1.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.4
2.3
2.22
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.72
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
19.1
-11
8.5
10.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
16.8
-6.4
2
2.68
Medium
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
13
7
9
9.67
Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.46
-0.06
-0.18
0.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
16.8
5.1
12
13.53
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-2.5
5.2
3
1.32
Low
Monday, February 16, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-2.7
-0.1
-0.13
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
1.3
-5.3
3
1.05
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
2.6
3.43
Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.23
Low
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0
-0.2
0.1
0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.2
-0.2
156013
117010.08
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.48
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product QoQ
0
-0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
Gross Domestic Product YoY
0.2
-2.6
1.6
0.90
Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.28
Low
08:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
25.3
10.9
9.5
11.35
Low
Monday, February 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.1
50.5
50.3
50.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.6
48.6
48.8
48.87
Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
7288
3674
1400
2202.13
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.63
Low
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.83
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2.4
0.5
1
1.02
Low
Friday, February 6, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
114.9
115.3
115.08
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
109.9
110.3
110.32
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.2
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
03:00
JP
CB Leading Index
-
109.9
109.8
109.90
Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.6
2.9
3.2
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.9
6.2
-2
-2.12
Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.80
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.30
Low
00:30
JP
Services PMI
53.1
51.1
52.8
52.90
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.7
51.6
53.4
53.25
Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.5
-9.8
-10.3
-10.60
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.78
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
51.5
50
51.5
51.67
Low
Friday, January 30, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-1.3
-8.5
-4.4
-5.10
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
20.2
9.5
-3
-0.60
Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
2.6
-2.2
-1.3
-0.47
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.19
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
CPI
1.5
2
1.8
1.78
Low
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2
2.3
2.2
2.13
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.9
37.2
37.6
37.87
High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.9
115.9
115.2
114.98
Low
Monday, January 26, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-1
-1.3
-0.7
-0.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.1
0.9
0.7
0.55
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.9
109.8
110.5
110.60
Low
Friday, January 23, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-
0.75
0.75
0.75
High
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
-
51.1
50.9
51.13
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
-
51.6
51.5
51.85
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
-
50
50.3
50.55
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
-
50
50.1
50.27
Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
-
3
2.8
2.72
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
-
2.9
2.7
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
-
0.4
0.2
0.40
Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-
0.06
-0.06
0.17
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-
1.3
3.6
1.93
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
-
6.1
6.1
7.63
Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization
-5.3
3.3
0.8
-1.15
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.2
1.6
-2.1
-1.27
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-2.7
1.5
-2.6
-2.63
Low
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.2
0.9
0.3
0.05
Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-11
7
-4
-1.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-6.4
12.5
13.2
13.88
Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index MoM
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.07
Low
23:50
JP
Producer Price Index YoY
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.38
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
10.6
14.2
14.2
16.05
Low
00:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
7
10
11
11.67
Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
50.5
50.3
50.5
50.45
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
48.6
48.7
48.8
48.87
Low
Monday, January 12, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.13
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
3674
2834
3594
4396.13
Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.2
115.9
116.2
115.98
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.42
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
0.7
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-0.7
1
0.5
0.22
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
110.5
109.8
110.4
110.50
Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
6.2
-3.5
2.7
2.58
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
2.9
-3
-0.9
-1.82
Medium
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.07
High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.63
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.5
2.6
2.3
2.32
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI
51.1
52
51.5
51.50
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.40
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.6
53.2
52.5
52.35
Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Monetary Base YoY
-9.8
-8.7
-8
-8.30
Low
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.98
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50
48.7
49.7
49.87
Low
Friday, December 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
-
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-2.1
1.6
1.4
2.23
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.6
1.6
0.3
1.02
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1
1.7
0.9
1.02
Medium
23:30
JP
Core CPI YoY
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.43
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.62
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.48
Low
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.5
-10.1
12
14.40
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.5
3.2
0.4
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
06:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:30
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
05:30
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.8
108.2
110
110.02
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.9
115.4
115.18
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Index MoM
-
0.9
1.8
1.65
Low
05:00
JP
CB Leading Index
109.8
108.6
110
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Indicator MoM
-
-1.3
0.5
0.22
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.75
High
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3
2.9
2.80
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
3
3
3
2.92
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.4
0
0.20
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3
3.1
3.1
3.03
Low
23:30
JP
CPI
3
3
3
2.98
Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
0.06
0.07
-0.2
0.02
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
12.5
11.6
3.6
4.28
Medium
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
6.1
3.6
4.8
6.33
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
1.3
0.7
2.5
0.82
Low
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7
4.2
-2.3
-0.15
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.5
53.2
51.6
51.95
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
49.7
48.7
49.5
49.75
Medium
00:30
JP
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
51.5
52
51.9
52.13
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.7
49
49.17
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan Housing Starts Fall Less Than Expected in January Housing starts measure the number of new residential building projects begun over a period, reflecting construction activity and economic health. Japan’s housing starts declined by 0.40% in January compared to the same month last year, improving from December’s 1.30% drop and beating the forecasted 2.00% fall. This data, released on February 27, 2026, suggests the housing sector is stabilizing after a turbulent 2025 marked by sharp contractions. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that “the smaller decline indicates tentative resilience in Japan’s residential market despite ongoing demographic challenges.” While the sector remains below growth levels, this improvement may ease pressure on policymakers and support cautious optimism among investors.
January’s housing starts YoY print of -0.4% compares favorably to December’s -1.3% and sits above the 12-month average of -5.9%. The indicator has rebounded sharply from the trough of -34.4% in June 2025, with volatility moderating since autumn. Over the past six months, readings ranged from -9.8% in September to a brief positive 3.2% in November, before returning to mild contraction.
This latest figure marks the smallest YoY decline since November’s brief rebound, suggesting the sector is stabilizing after a year of steep swings. The improvement is notable given persistent headwinds from construction costs and demographic drag.