Unemployment Rate - JP Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Japan Unemployment Rate
2.6
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.6
Previous
Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 2.60%, exactly matching consensus and November’s reading. This unchanged rate from October’s 2.60% signals a stable labor market with no expansion or contraction momentum. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its cautious policy stance amid subdued inflation and steady employment conditions. Updated 1/30/26
Unemployment Rate - JP
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Listen to: Japan Unemployment Rate
Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 held steady at 2.60%, matching both consensus and the prior month. The labor market remains tight, but momentum has plateaued, with macro and policy implications for 2026.
Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025: Labor Market Holds Steady at 2.60%
Japan’s national unemployment rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.60%, unchanged from November and in line with market expectations. This reading, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, underscores a stable—yet no longer tightening—labor market as the country enters 2026.
December 2025’s unemployment rate remained at 2.60%, matching both November 2025 and the 12-month average. This marks the fourth consecutive month at this level, following a brief dip to 2.30% in August 2025. The labor force participation rate held firm, with no significant uptick in job-seeking activity or layoffs. Key contributors to stability included robust hiring in healthcare and logistics, offsetting mild softness in manufacturing.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to monitor labor market slack as it weighs normalization of ultra-loose monetary policy. With unemployment steady and inflation still below the 2% target, the BoJ is unlikely to tighten aggressively. Fiscal policy remains supportive, with government employment programs and subsidies cushioning downside risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USDJPY was little changed, trading in a narrow 0.10% range after the print. Equity markets (Nikkei 225) showed muted response, reflecting the market’s expectation of a steady jobs picture. Japanese government bond yields were stable, as the data did not alter the BoJ’s near-term policy outlook.
Labor market context
Japan’s unemployment rate has hovered between 2.30% and 2.60% over the past year. December’s 2.60% matches readings from November, October, and late September 2025. For historical context, the rate was 2.40% in March 2025 and 2.50% in May and June. The 12-month average stands at 2.60%, highlighting the labor market’s remarkable stability despite global headwinds.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Japan’s labor market has weathered external shocks, including supply chain disruptions and regional geopolitical tensions. The yen’s depreciation in 2025 supported export-oriented sectors, helping offset weakness in domestic demand. However, risks remain from potential trade frictions and energy price volatility.
Structural & long-run trends
Demographic headwinds—an aging population and shrinking workforce—continue to underpin Japan’s low unemployment. Labor shortages persist in healthcare, construction, and logistics, while automation and digitalization reshape job demand. The steady rate reflects both cyclical resilience and structural constraints.
December 2025’s unemployment rate (2.60%) was unchanged from November 2025 (2.60%) and matched the 12-month average (2.60%). The last significant deviation was August 2025’s 2.30%, after which the rate returned to its prior range. The chart below visualizes this plateau, with minimal month-to-month volatility since September.
Compared to March 2025 (2.40%) and May-June 2025 (2.50%), the current level signals a stabilization rather than further tightening. The labor market’s resilience is evident, but the absence of improvement suggests limited slack reduction ahead.
2.40 ┤ ┌─┐
2.30 ┤ ┌┘ │
2.50 ┤ ┌─┘ └─┐
2.60 ┼─┘ └─────────────
Mar May Jun Aug Oct Nov Dec
What This Chart Tells Us: The unemployment rate has plateaued at 2.60% since September 2025, reversing the brief improvement seen in August. This trend signals a mature labor market with limited near-term upside for further tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USDJPY was flat, reflecting no surprise in the data. The Nikkei 225 and JGB yields were similarly unmoved, as investors had priced in a steady print. The lack of volatility underscores the market’s confidence in Japan’s labor market stability.
Scenario analysis
Bullish (20%): Unemployment dips to 2.40% by mid-2026, driven by a rebound in manufacturing and tourism, and further yen depreciation boosting exports.
Base case (65%): The rate remains at 2.50–2.60% through 2026, as demographic constraints and moderate growth keep the labor market tight but static.
Bearish (15%): Unemployment rises above 2.70% if global demand falters, energy prices spike, or policy missteps occur.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global growth and successful labor market reforms. Downside risks stem from external shocks, yen volatility, and potential policy errors. The BoJ’s cautious stance and fiscal support should limit sharp deterioration, but structural headwinds cap upside.
Policy pulse
With unemployment steady and inflation subdued, the BoJ is expected to maintain its current policy stance. Any shift toward tightening would likely require a sustained drop in unemployment or a sharp rise in wages and prices.
Summary and implications
Japan’s December 2025 unemployment rate of 2.60% confirms a stable but mature labor market. The plateau reflects both cyclical resilience and structural constraints, with limited room for further tightening. Policymakers are likely to stay the course, while investors should watch for signs of wage growth or external shocks that could alter the outlook.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
Japan’s unemployment rate is a key macro indicator for both domestic and global investors. Movements in this metric can influence currency pairs, equity indices, and even crypto assets sensitive to risk sentiment. Below are five tradable symbols whose prices historically track or react to shifts in Japan’s labor market, each selected from Sigmanomics’ market pages:
N225 – The Nikkei 225 index, highly sensitive to domestic economic momentum and labor market trends.
7203.T – Toyota Motor Corp., a bellwether for Japan’s manufacturing sector and employment.
USDJPY – The yen-dollar pair, often moves on labor data as it shapes BoJ policy expectations.
EURJPY – The euro-yen cross, reflects both Japanese and European macro trends.
BTCJPY – Bitcoin priced in yen, can react to shifts in risk sentiment following macro releases.
Indicator vs. USDJPY since 2020:
Year
Unemployment Rate (%)
USDJPY (avg)
2020
2.80
106.80
2021
2.80
109.70
2022
2.60
131.50
2023
2.50
139.20
2024
2.60
145.70
2025
2.60
148.30
USDJPY has trended higher as unemployment stabilized, reflecting both policy divergence and Japan’s labor market resilience. Major deviations in the unemployment rate have historically triggered sharp yen moves.
FAQ: Japan’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025
Q1: What is Japan’s unemployment rate for December 2025?
A1: The rate was 2.60%, unchanged from November and matching the 12-month average, per the Sigmanomics database.
Q2: Why is the unemployment rate important for markets?
A2: It signals labor market health, influences BoJ policy, and impacts assets like the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY.
Q3: What are the main risks to the outlook?
A3: Downside risks include global demand shocks and yen volatility; upside risks stem from stronger growth or reforms.
Takeaway: Japan’s labor market remains tight but has lost momentum, with policy and market implications finely balanced as 2026 begins.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Desk
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 1/30/26
Economic Calendar - JP Events
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.2
1.8
2
1.88
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
36.2
38.3
38.9
38.18
High
Monday, May 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
112.2
112.1
111.4
111.60
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.6
111.5
113.9
114.45
Low
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0
0.02
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.5
2.7
2.3
2.30
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.2
2.18
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.4
2.9
2.6
2.53
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.6
54.3
53.8
53.82
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.5
49.6
49.7
50.15
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.3
52.2
52.28
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.9
7.7
-2.2
-0.15
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-462.5
366.5
-339.5
-180.45
High
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
8.3
7.3
11.1
11.45
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
2.7
-1.8
0.3
1.78
Medium
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
8.3
-5.1
9
8.40
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
9
7
8.50
Medium
Monday, May 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-2.4
2.2
0.1
-0.18
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.2
-3.9
-6.7
-6.72
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
4.4
-0.6
3.8
3.88
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
1.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.95
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.32
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.5
0
-0.4
-0.52
High
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-2
0
-1.5
-2.00
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.6
3.9
3.3
3.33
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.8
1.8
0.4
0.05
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-11.6
-3.8
-7.5
-8.43
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.22
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.92
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
47.4
49.8
50.4
49.82
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
48.5
51.2
51.3
50.65
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
3398.8
2644.2
3489.6
3524.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-1.2
-0.5
-2.4
-2.12
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.2
1.4
-0.3
-0.32
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
113.9
111.5
111
111.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.4
112.1
111
111.20
Low
Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Overtime Pay YoY
-1.5
-1.6
-0.6
-1.05
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.6
1.4
1.5
1.67
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.3
54.1
54.6
54.62
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
51.7
52.6
52.68
Low
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38.3
39.5
39.7
38.98
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-12.8
-8.2
-7.6
-8.88
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
31.4
-11
4.3
9.55
Low
Monday, April 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-6.7
-3.9
-6.6
-6.62
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-1.2
1.5
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
3.8
-0.6
3.4
3.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
4.7
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.55
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.28
1.26
1.26
1.26
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.10
High
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.8
2.6
2.6
2.48
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
1.4
2.9
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
111.6
112.3
110.9
111.45
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.8
112.00
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
48.2
48
48.45
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.6
54.1
54
54.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.6
51.7
52
52.08
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.70
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.68
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.2
3
2.93
Low
05:00
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
1.5
-0.5
0.8
0.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
366.5
-377.8
-280
-120.95
High
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
9
10
9
10.50
Medium
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-1.8
-10.9
-8
-6.52
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
7.7
-1.7
-0.2
1.85
Medium
Friday, April 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.9
-1.5
-3.4
-3.42
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.5
-7.9
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.6
-6.7
-0.1
-0.02
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.32
Low
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.2
3
3.1
3.13
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.82
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8.5
-8
-5
-5.93
Low
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.5
39
39.7
38.98
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
51.2
53
52.9
52.25
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
49.8
51.3
51.5
50.92
Low
Sunday, April 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
2644.2
438.2
3112.5
3147.42
Medium
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1.8
2
1.4
1.57
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.9
112.1
112
112.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
111.8
109.5
111.6
111.80
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-0.5
-6.3
-3
-2.72
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
1.4
-2.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.7
50.6
52.3
52.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.1
52.9
54.9
54.92
Medium
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Tankan Large All Industry Capex
4
13.5
9.2
6.60
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook
10
8
11
10.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index
34
32
33
33.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook
27
27
30
28.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Small Manufacturers Index
-1
2
-2
-1.50
Low
23:50
JP
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
11
13
10
10.50
High
Friday, March 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-8.2
-7.5
-5.5
-6.78
Medium
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-3.4
-1.5
-2
-2.02
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.1
-6.7
1.4
1.48
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
4.6
2.1
3
3.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
1.5
0.2
0.4
0.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.58
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.9
3.1
2.5
2.32
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.30
Low
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.26
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.5
109.9
109.9
110.10
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
112.1
115.9
110.2
110.75
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.23
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.2
3
3.00
High
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2
2.8
2.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0
0.2
0.22
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48.2
47.2
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
54.9
52.9
53.4
53.42
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
52.3
50.6
50.9
50.98
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
7.8
11.9
5.3
5.65
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-379.4
-1760.3
-810.2
-651.15
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
0.5
-9.8
2.2
1.60
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
10
-1
3
4.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-7.9
0.2
-0.2
-1.35
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-6.7
1.2
-7.5
-7.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1.52
Low
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
0
-0.1
0
0.00
High
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-1.7
1.9
-1
1.05
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-10.9
-0.7
-11.2
-9.72
Medium
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.08
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ
-6.7
5.7
6.2
-0.25
Low
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.6
0.2
0.5
0.52
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-8
-14.1
-10
-10.93
Low
Sunday, March 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.9
5.2
3.8
3.83
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.35
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
2
-0.6
2.5
2.15
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
0.4
-3.2
1.1
0.60
Medium
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
53
52.5
52.4
51.75
Low
06:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
51.3
50.2
50.1
49.52
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
110.2
116
115.4
115.95
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
109.9
110.5
110.1
110.30
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3
3.1
2.9
2.93
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
438.2
744.3
-330.4
-295.48
Medium
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-6.3
-2.5
-4.3
-4.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-2.1
-0.9
0.4
0.38
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
2
1
0.5
0.67
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.6
51.5
50.3
50.38
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.9
53.1
52.5
52.52
Medium
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.52
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.6
1.8
2.1
1.98
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.5
1.8
2.5
2.40
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Capital Spending YoY
16.4
3.4
1.9
9.15
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
39.1
38
38.3
37.58
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
47.2
47.65
Medium
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.45
Medium
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.27
Low
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-7.5
-4
-7.7
-8.98
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
9.1
0.4
4
9.25
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-7.5
1.4
-7.3
-7.22
Medium
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
-2.9
0.6
0.52
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.5
-0.7
-1.1
-1.12
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.35
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
115.9
114.6
116.2
116.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110.2
108.1
110
110.20
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.3
1.8
1.78
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.10
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.5
3.7
3.2
3.13
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.1
-0.1
-0.08
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
48
48.2
48.65
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.1
53.2
53.22
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50.3
51.5
51.6
51.68
Low
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
11.9
9.7
9.5
9.85
Medium
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
-1758.3
68.9
-1925.9
-1766.85
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-9.6
-6.9
-8.4
-9.00
Low
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
-1
6
7
8.50
Medium
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
2.7
-4.9
2.5
4.55
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-0.7
-5
-1.4
0.08
Medium
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
0.7
-1.4
-0.3
-0.58
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1
-1.4
-0.7
-0.72
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-0.75
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.4
-0.9
1.8
1.88
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
GDP External Demand QoQ
0.2
0
0.3
0.28
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.05
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Price Index YoY
3.8
5.3
4
4.03
Low
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
0.18
High
23:50
JP
GDP Growth Annualized
-0.4
-3.3
1.4
0.90
Medium
23:50
JP
GDP Private Consumption QoQ
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.05
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-14.1
-9.6
-6
-6.93
Low
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0
0.3
0.1
0.12
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.12
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.2
51.8
51
50.42
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
52.5
50.4
49.7
49.05
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Current Account
744.3
1925.6
1018.9
1053.82
Medium
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.23
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
116.2
114.6
115.2
115.75
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
110
108.1
109.4
109.60
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-0.9
-1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.5
-2.9
-2.1
-1.82
Low
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
1
0.2
1.3
1.47
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.5
50
51.1
51.18
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
53.1
51.5
52.7
52.72
Medium
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48
48.45
Medium
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
38
37.2
37.6
36.88
High
05:00
JP
Housing Starts YoY
-4
-8.5
-6.2
-7.48
Medium
05:00
JP
Construction Orders YoY
0.4
33.6
1.1
6.35
Low
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Retail Sales YoY
2.1
5.4
4.7
4.75
Medium
23:50
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-0.7
-1.4
0.7
0.68
Low
23:50
JP
Retail Sales MoM
-2.9
1
0.5
0.42
Low
23:50
JP
Industrial Production MoM
1.8
-0.9
2.4
2.48
Medium
Monday, January 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Jobs/applications ratio
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
Low
23:30
JP
Unemployment Rate
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.55
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.6
108.9
107.7
107.90
Low
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.6
115.9
114.5
115.05
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
1.6
2.4
2.2
2.08
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
1.6
2.1
1.9
1.80
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.32
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
51.1
50
49.5
49.58
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
52.7
51.5
51
51.02
Medium
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
48
47.9
48.2
48.65
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Balance of Trade
62.1
-780.4
-122.1
36.95
High
23:50
JP
Imports YoY
-6.8
-11.9
-5.3
-5.90
Low
23:50
JP
Exports YoY
9.8
-0.2
9.1
9.45
Medium
03:00
JP
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.10
High
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
JP
Tertiary Industry Index MoM
-0.7
-0.2
-0.4
-0.68
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.28
Medium
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
-0.1
-0.08
Low
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.60
High
23:30
JP
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.73
Low
04:30
JP
Capacity Utilization MoM
0.3
1.5
-0.4
-1.55
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production YoY
-1.4
1.1
-1.4
-1.42
Low
04:30
JP
Industrial Production MoM
-0.9
1.3
-0.9
-0.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders YoY
-5
-2.2
0.2
1.68
Medium
23:50
JP
Machinery Orders MoM
-4.9
0.7
-0.8
1.25
Medium
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
JP
Reuters Tankan Index
6
12
11
12.50
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
PPI MoM
0.3
0.3
0
0.02
Low
23:50
JP
PPI YoY
0
0.3
-0.3
-0.28
Low
06:00
JP
Machine Tool Orders YoY
-9.9
-13.6
-9
-9.93
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Current
50.7
49.5
49.9
49.32
Low
05:00
JP
Eco Watchers Survey Outlook
49.1
49.4
49.3
48.65
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:50
JP
Bank Lending YoY
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.83
Low
23:50
JP
Current Account
1925.6
2582.8
2385.1
2420.02
Medium
05:00
JP
Coincident Index
114.5
115.9
116
116.55
Low
05:00
JP
Leading Economic Index
107.7
108.9
109
109.20
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Average Cash Earnings YoY
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.67
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
JP
Household Spending YoY
-2.9
-2.5
-2.3
-2.02
Low
23:30
JP
Household Spending MoM
-1
-0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.42
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.00
Low
23:30
JP
Tokyo CPI YoY
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.38
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:00
JP
Consumer Confidence
37.2
36.1
36
35.28
High
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Composite PMI
50
49.6
50.4
50.48
Low
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI
51.5
50.8
52
52.02
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.9
48.3
47.7
48.15
Medium
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Japan Unemployment Rate Holds Steady at 2.60 Percent December 2025 Unemployment Rate Remains Unchanged The unemployment rate measures the share of the labor force actively seeking work but unable to find employment. For Japan (JP), December 2025’s unemployment rate stayed flat at 2.60%, matching both the previous month and market expectations. Fast facts: the year-over-year rate is steady at 2.60%, there was no change from November 2025, and the data was released on January 29, 2026. This stability signals a tight labor market that has plateaued after months of gradual improvement. According to economist Hiroshi Tanaka of Morgan Stanley, “Japan’s labor market shows resilience amid global uncertainty, but the lack of further decline in unemployment suggests limited near-term wage pressure.” The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its cautious monetary stance as inflation remains below target and labor slack is minimal. Market reaction was muted, with USDJPY and equity indices reflecting expectations of steady conditions.
December 2025’s unemployment rate (2.60%) was unchanged from November 2025 (2.60%) and matched the 12-month average (2.60%). The last significant deviation was August 2025’s 2.30%, after which the rate returned to its prior range. The chart below visualizes this plateau, with minimal month-to-month volatility since September.
Compared to March 2025 (2.40%) and May-June 2025 (2.50%), the current level signals a stabilization rather than further tightening. The labor market’s resilience is evident, but the absence of improvement suggests limited slack reduction ahead.