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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Japan Interest Rate held to 1.04 Percent in August 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Japan Interest Rate held to 1.04 Percent in August 2026, released September 2026.
Latest Release
1.043000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.043000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Japan Interest Rate (Japan) was reported at 1.04 Percent in August 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.77 Percent, ranging from 0.48 Percent to 1.04 Percent across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.00 Percent, up from the prior three at 0.77 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.10 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, Japan Interest Rate has averaged 0.58 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Japan Interest Rate - JP
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About Japan Interest Rate — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan Interest Rate for August registered at 0.977%, slightly below July’s 0.978%. The rate has remained near this level since June’s 0.841%, indicating a stable monetary stance. Market participants will watch upcoming data for signals on any shifts in Bank of Japan policy. Updated 9/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.043 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.977 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.978 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |