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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Japan Interest Rate held to 0.84 Percent in May 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Japan Interest Rate held to 0.84 Percent in May 2026, released June 2026.
Latest Release
0.841000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.841000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Japan Interest Rate (Japan) was reported at 0.84 Percent in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.67 Percent, ranging from 0.48 Percent to 0.84 Percent across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77 Percent, up from the prior three at 0.73 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.11 Percent). In June readings over the past 3 years, Japan Interest Rate has averaged 0.47 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Japan Interest Rate - JP
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About Japan Interest Rate — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan Interest Rate held steady at 0.727000% in May, matching April's level exactly. The rate has remained stable since January's 0.728%, indicating no change in monetary policy over the past five months. Market participants will watch upcoming economic data for signals on future central bank moves. Updated 6/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.841 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.727 Percent. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.727 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |