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Data from U.K. Office for National Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom Core Retail Sales YoY held to 2.1% in July 2013
U.K. Office for National StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2013
United Kingdom Core Retail Sales YoY held to 2.1% in July 2013. The print exceeded the 1.6% consensus by 0.5%.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
1.6
Consensus
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/GBP | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Retail Sales YoY (United Kingdom) was reported at 2.1% in July 2013. This beat the market consensus of 1.6% by 0.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/GBP, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2013.
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Core Retail Sales YoY - UK
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About Core Retail Sales YoY — United Kingdom
DEFINITION
Core Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of retail sales, excluding volatile categories such as automobiles and gasoline, compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator provides insight into the overall strength of consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts. A positive YoY change in core retail sales indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative change may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2013): actual 2.1 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2013): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary neutral force in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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