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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Industrial Production MoM climbed to 3.2% in September 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased November 2026
Japan Industrial Production MoM climbed to 3.2% in September 2026, released November 2026, up 5.6% from August's -2.4% reading. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 2.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.2%, vs 0.85% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
1.1
Consensus
-2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.63 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2026
Predicted: 0.64
Actual: 3.2
Error: -2.56
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Japan) was reported at 3.2% in November 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 2.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.84%, ranging from -4.3% to 8% across 25 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.33%, up from the prior three at -0.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.54%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.9%). In November readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 1.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 22) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - JP
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About Industrial Production MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.2 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -4.2 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 6.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.40 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | 54.5 | 54.60 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 51.9 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 51.3 | 50.75 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 1.7 | -1.9 | -1.90 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Index MoM | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | |