Loading page content
Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan CPI climbed to 1.6% in February 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased February 2026
Japan CPI climbed to 1.6% in February 2026, up 0.1% from January's 1.5% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.5% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.05%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 1.73%, vs 1.93% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
1.5
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 1.47
Actual: 1.6
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Japan) was reported at 1.6% in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.11%, ranging from -0.2% to 3.3% across 17 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.97%, down from the prior three at 2.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.17%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.16%). In February readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 1.88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 19) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
SHARE
CPI - JP
Loading chart data...
About CPI — Japan
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.