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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan CPI climbed to 1.6% in February 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased February 2026
Japan CPI climbed to 1.6% in February 2026, up 0.1% from January's 1.5% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.5% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.05%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 1.73%, vs 1.93% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
1.5
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 1.47
Actual: 1.6
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Japan) was reported at 1.6% in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.02%, ranging from -0.2% to 3.1% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.97%, down from the prior three at 2.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.19%). In February readings over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 1.88%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Aug 9) and BoJ Summary of Opinions (Aug 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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CPI - JP
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About CPI — Japan
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Economic Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low |
| Sunday, August 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 3968 | 1512 | 1913.50 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.10 | Low | |
| Monday, August 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 45.7 | 46 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 44 | 44.4 | 44.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 52.8 | 42 | 42.00 | Low | |
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.40 | Low | |