JapanJapan CPI climbed to 1.6% in February 2026
Japan CPI climbed to 1.6% in February 2026, up 0.1% from January's 1.5% reading. The print came in above the 1.5% consensus by 0.1%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.3%. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Backtest — not a live record
Backtest median absolute error
reconstructed over the last 12 releases
Latest release (backtest)
Released 26 Feb 2026
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Japan) was reported at 1.6% in February 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.5%. The 12 releases before this one averaged 2.05%.
WHY IT MATTERS
Releases in the 3 months before this one averaged 1.73%, against 1.93% in the 3 months before that. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.14%). Across releases published in February over the past 3 years, CPI has averaged 1.88%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Annualized (Nov 15) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 15).
CPI - JP
About CPI — Japan
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026, first reported): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 1.27% (latest print 1.6%). The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (r=-0.89) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 42.5 | 60.4 | 54.5 | 48.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.80 | Low |
| Sunday, November 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | GDP External Demand QoQ | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.40 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ | -0.9 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Growth Annualized | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Private Consumption QoQ | 0 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
Neha GuptaLinkedIn profile
Neha Gupta is a Chartered Financial Analyst with over 18 years of experience in finance and more than 11 years as a financial writer. She’s authored for clients worldwide, including platforms like MarketWatch, TipRanks, InsiderMonkey, and Seeking Alpha. Her work is known for its technical rigor, clear communication, and compliance-awareness—evident in her success enhancing market updates.