Japan's headline CPI rose to 1.6% in January 2026, up from December's 1.5%. The print exceeded consensus and reversed last month's slowdown, with energy and food prices as key drivers. Market reaction was muted as the figure remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

Japan CPI: January 2026 Print Surpasses Expectations at 1.6%

Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 came in at 1.6% year-over-year, according to official data released on February 26, 2026. This marks a modest acceleration from December's 1.5% and puts inflation back above the consensus estimate of 1.5%.

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Energy: +0.22pp
Food: +0.18pp
Transport: +0.07pp
Housing: +0.03pp
Recreation: -0.04pp

Policy pulse

January's 1.6% CPI remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target. The central bank has maintained its ultra-loose stance, citing subdued wage growth and persistent downside risks.

Market lens

Yen and JGB yields were little changed after the release. Investors viewed the print as insufficient to alter the Bank of Japan's current policy trajectory, given the gap to target and recent volatility in energy components.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

January 2026: 1.6% YoY
December 2025: 1.5% YoY
November 2025: 2.6% YoY
October 2025: 2.8% YoY
September 2025: 2.5% YoY

Trend analysis

Inflation has moderated from its late-2025 highs. The 12-month average stands at 1.98%, with January's reading marking the first uptick since November. The pace remains well below the peaks seen in December and October.

Methodology

CPI is calculated by Japan's Statistics Bureau, tracking price changes across a fixed basket of goods and services. The headline figure reflects year-over-year changes, seasonally adjusted for volatility in food and energy.

Chart Dynamics

January's 1.6% CPI print reversed December's 1.5% and sits below the 12-month average of 1.98%. The index peaked at 2.9% in December 2025 before trending lower. Over the past six months, inflation has decelerated from September's 2.5% and October's 2.8% to the current level.

Volatility in energy and food prices has contributed to the recent swings. The latest reading signals stabilization, though the gap to the Bank of Japan's 2% target persists.

Line chart showing Japan's CPI from September 2025 (2.5%) rising to a peak of 2.9% in December, then declining to 1.5% in December and rebounding to 1.6% in January 2026. — CPI trend, September 2025 – January 2026

What This Chart Tells Us: The CPI trajectory highlights a sharp pullback from late-2025 highs, followed by a modest rebound in January. Directionally, inflation remains subdued relative to recent peaks, with no clear momentum toward the 2% target.

Forward Outlook

Scenario analysis

Bullish (15–25%): Energy prices surge, CPI returns above 2% in coming months.
Base (60–70%): CPI fluctuates between 1.4% and 1.7%, reflecting stable core prices and muted wage growth.
Bearish (10–20%): Deflationary pressures re-emerge, pushing CPI below 1% if global demand weakens.

Risks and catalysts

Upside risks include commodity price shocks and yen depreciation. Downside risks stem from weak domestic consumption and external demand softness. The Bank of Japan's policy stance remains a key variable for inflation expectations.

Data source

Figures are sourced from Japan's Statistics Bureau and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1].

Closing Thoughts

Market lens

Japanese equities and the yen showed muted moves post-release. Investors remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals on inflation's trajectory and the Bank of Japan's response. The CPI print, while above consensus, is not seen as a catalyst for immediate policy change.

Takeaway

Japan's January CPI print underscores persistent disinflationary forces, with headline inflation still trailing the central bank's target. Market participants continue to monitor core drivers and policy signals for signs of sustained price momentum.

Key Markets Reacting to CPI

Japan's CPI data influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and global risk proxies. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown sensitivity to inflation surprises in Japan. Each reflects a distinct market channel for CPI-driven volatility.

AAPL — Correlates with global risk sentiment; Japanese CPI surprises can ripple through tech stocks via supply chain and FX channels.
USDJPY — Directly impacted by Japanese inflation data, with higher CPI often supporting yen strength if policy expectations shift.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin's appeal as an inflation hedge can rise on CPI volatility, though the correlation is episodic.

Indicator vs. Symbol: CPI and USDJPY Since 2020

Year	CPI (%)	USDJPY Direction
2020	0.0–0.5	Yen stable
2021	0.2–0.8	Yen weakens
2022	1.0–3.0	Yen depreciates sharply
2023	2.5–3.3	Yen volatile
2024–2025	2.5–2.9	Yen mixed
2026 (Jan)	1.6	Yen steady

USDJPY's direction has tracked major CPI inflections, with the yen most sensitive during periods of rapid inflation acceleration or deceleration.

FAQ: Japan CPI: January 2026 Print Surpasses Expectations at 1.6%

What is the latest CPI figure for Japan?: Japan's CPI for January 2026 was 1.6% year-over-year, up from December's 1.5%.
What are the key takeaways from the latest CPI release?: The headline CPI rose above consensus, driven by energy and food prices, but remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
Why is Japan's CPI important for financial markets?: CPI is a key indicator of inflation trends, influencing monetary policy, currency moves, and risk sentiment across markets.

Japan's January CPI print signals persistent disinflation, with headline inflation still below the central bank's target.

Updated 2/27/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Japan Statistics Bureau, "Consumer Price Index," January 2026 release.
Sigmanomics Economic Database, CPI time series for Japan, 2025–2026.

Economic Calendar - JP Events

Wednesday, March 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ	3.8	4.7	5.5	4.65	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	-	25.3	22.5	24.35	Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.1	0.2	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2	2.3	2.1	2.08	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	24.2	25.3	25.3	27.15	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
Monday, March 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Annualized	1.3	-2.6	1.2	1.25	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0.30	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	1.3	-0.2	0.2	-39002.72	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.38	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.13	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.12	High
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.5	-2.2	0.8	0.68	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	-	0.9	1	1.23	Low
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-1	-2.6	2.5	1.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3	2.4	2.5	2.52	Low
22:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	0.1	0.3	0.32	High
17:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0	0.02	Low
07:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48	48.07	Low
06:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48.2	48.27	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	112.4	110.3	113	113.10	Low
04:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	111	113.2	113.30	Low
01:15	JP	Current Account	941.6	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.53	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3.15	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	3.3	1.5	1	1.23	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	40	37.9	38.1	38.37	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.8	53.7	53.8	53.70	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.90	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
17:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	-	53.7	53.8	53.70	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Capital Expenditure YoY	6.5	2.9	2.3	4.40	Medium
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-10.6	-9.5	-9.8	-10.10	Low
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.2	1.19	1.19	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	53	51.5	52.8	53.08	Low
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	5.7	20.2	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-0.4	-1.3	-2	-2.70	Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	2.6	1.2	2.03	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.48	Medium
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	4.1	-2	1.5	2.22	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	1.8	2	1.8	1.73	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.48	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.22	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.3	114.9	114.5	114.28	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.6	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
22:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
22:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
22:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.8	53.1	52.5	52.73	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52.8	51.5	52	52.25	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.8	53.7	53.3	53.65	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52.8	51.5	51.3	51.58	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	1.5	2.1	1.9	1.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2	2.4	2.3	2.22	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	2.6	2.9	2.8	2.72	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	19.1	-11	8.5	10.65	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	16.8	-6.4	2	2.68	Medium
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.46	-0.06	-0.18	0.05	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	16.8	5.1	12	13.53	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-2.5	5.2	3	1.32	Low
Monday, February 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-0.1	-2.7	-0.1	-0.13	Low
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	1.3	-5.3	3	1.05	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	2.6	3.43	Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.23	Low
23:50	JP	GDP External Demand QoQ	0	-0.2	0.1	0.05	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	0.2	-0.2	156013	117010.08	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.48	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0.1	0.12	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.2	-2.6	1.6	0.90	Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.17	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.28	Low
08:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	25.3	10.9	9.5	11.35	Low
Monday, February 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.1	50.5	50.3	50.25	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	47.6	48.6	48.8	48.87	Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Current Account	7288	3674	1400	2202.13	Medium
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.6	4.63	Low
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.83	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	2.4	0.5	1	1.02	Low
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.5	114.9	115.3	115.08	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.2	109.9	110.3	110.32	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.2	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
03:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-2.6	2.9	3.2	2.28	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.9	6.2	-2	-2.12	Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.30	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.90	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.25	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.5	-9.8	-10.3	-10.60	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.78	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.67	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-1.3	-8.5	-4.4	-5.10	Medium
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	20.2	9.5	-3	-0.60	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	-1.3	-0.47	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-0.9	1.1	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.19	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	CPI	1.5	2	1.8	1.78	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2	2.3	2.2	2.13	Low
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.9	37.2	37.6	37.87	High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.9	115.9	115.2	114.98	Low
Monday, January 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.52	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-1	-1.3	-0.7	-0.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.55	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.60	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	-	0.75	0.75	0.75	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.1	50.9	51.13	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.6	51.5	51.85	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50	50.3	50.55	Medium
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	-	50	50.1	50.27	Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Low
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	-	2.9	2.7	2.60	High
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	-	0.4	0.2	0.40	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	-	0.06	-0.06	0.17	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-	1.3	3.6	1.93	Low
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	-	6.1	6.1	7.63	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	-5.3	3.3	0.8	-1.15	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.2	1.6	-2.1	-1.27	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-2.7	1.5	-2.6	-2.63	Low
04:30	JP	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.2	0.9	0.3	0.05	Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	-11	7	-4	-1.85	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	-6.4	12.5	13.2	13.88	Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.4	2.7	2.4	2.38	Low
23:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	10.6	14.2	14.2	16.05	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.5	50.3	50.5	50.45	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.6	48.7	48.8	48.87	Low
Monday, January 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.13	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3674	2834	3594	4396.13	Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.2	115.9	116.2	115.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.42	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.7	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.7	1	0.5	0.22	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.50	Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	6.2	-3.5	2.7	2.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	2.9	-3	-0.9	-1.82	Medium
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.2	37.5	37.8	38.07	High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.63	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	0.5	2.6	2.3	2.32	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.1	52	51.5	51.50	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.40	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.35	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.8	-8.7	-8	-8.30	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.98	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.87	Low
Friday, December 26, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	-	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	1.6	1.4	2.23	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	0.6	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2.3	2.8	2.5	2.43	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.48	Low
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	9.5	-10.1	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-8.5	3.2	0.4	-0.30	Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
06:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
06:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
05:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.8	108.2	110	110.02	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.9	114.9	115.4	115.18	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.8	108.6	110	110.10	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:30	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	2.9	3	2.9	2.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3	3	3	2.92	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	0.4	0.4	0	0.20	Low
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	3	3.1	3.1	3.03	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	3	3	3	2.98	Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.06	0.07	-0.2	0.02	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	12.5	11.6	3.6	4.28	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	6.1	3.6	4.8	6.33	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	1.3	0.7	2.5	0.82	Low
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	7	4.2	-2.3	-0.15	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.5	53.2	51.6	51.95	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	49.7	48.7	49.5	49.75	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	51.5	52	51.9	52.13	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	49.7	48.7	49	49.17	Low