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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tokyo CPI YoY climbed to 3.4% in January 2025
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased January 2025
Japan Tokyo CPI YoY climbed to 3.4% in January 2025, up 0.4% from December's 3.0% reading. The print came in hotter than the 3.1% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Tokyo CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Tokyo CPI YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.26 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 3.45
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tokyo CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.4% in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of 3.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.6%, up from the prior three at 2.33%. In January readings over the past 3 years, Tokyo CPI YoY has averaged 2.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.26%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Aug 9) and BoJ Summary of Opinions (Aug 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Tokyo CPI YoY - JP
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About Tokyo CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tokyo CPI YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in consumer prices in Tokyo, Japan. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends in the country's capital city, which is a major economic hub. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can impact monetary policy decisions and consumer spending patterns. A higher Tokyo CPI YoY indicates rising inflation, while a lower figure suggests a decrease in consumer prices.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2025): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 2.6 %. Before that (Oct 2024): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Economic Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low |
| Sunday, August 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 3968 | 1512 | 1913.50 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.10 | Low | |
| Monday, August 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 45.7 | 46 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 44 | 44.4 | 44.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 52.8 | 42 | 42.00 | Low | |
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.40 | Low | |