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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Core CPI YoY climbed to 1.8% in August 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Core CPI YoY climbed to 1.8% in August 2026, up 0.1% from July's 1.7% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.7% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.06%. Over the past 3 months, Core CPI YoY averaged 1.75%, vs 1.5% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
1.7
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.75
Actual: 1.8
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.05%, ranging from 1.3% to 2.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.77%, up from the prior three at 1.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.47%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.49%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Core CPI YoY - JP
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About Core CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Core CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year) is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about economic conditions and monetary policies. This indicator is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by financial analysts and market participants.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |