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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Core CPI YoY fell to 1.3% in May 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Core CPI YoY fell to 1.3% in May 2026, down 0.2% from April's 1.5% reading. The print came in cooler than the 1.5% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Core CPI YoY has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core CPI YoY averaged 1.6%, vs 2.03% in the prior 3-month window. Core CPI YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.5
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.45
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.5% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.34%, ranging from 1.3% to 3.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.6%, down from the prior three at 2.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core CPI YoY - JP
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About Core CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Core CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year) is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about economic conditions and monetary policies. This indicator is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by financial analysts and market participants.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.