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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Core CPI YoY climbed to 1.9% in July 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Core CPI YoY climbed to 1.9% in July 2026, up 0.3% from June's 1.6% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.7% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Core CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core CPI YoY averaged 1.45%, vs 1.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.9
Actual
1.7
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.65
Actual: 1.9
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.11%, ranging from 1.3% to 2.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.6%, down from the prior three at 1.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.5%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core CPI YoY - JP
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About Core CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Core CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year) is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about economic conditions and monetary policies. This indicator is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by financial analysts and market participants.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.9 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |