Loading page content
Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Core CPI YoY climbed to 1.6% in June 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Core CPI YoY climbed to 1.6% in June 2026, up 0.3% from May's 1.3% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.27%. Over the past 3 months, Core CPI YoY averaged 1.5%, vs 1.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 15th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.53
Actual: 1.6
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.6% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.6% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.2%, ranging from 1.3% to 2.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.53%, down from the prior three at 2.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jul 21) and Exports YoY (Jul 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Core CPI YoY - JP
Loading chart data...
About Core CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Core CPI YoY (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year) is a widely used financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile food and energy prices. It provides valuable insights into the overall inflation trends and helps investors and policymakers make informed decisions about economic conditions and monetary policies. This indicator is considered a key measure of inflation and is closely monitored by financial analysts and market participants.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.6 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -378.7 | -700 | -919.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:30 | JP | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.70 | High | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY | 1.8 | 2 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 23:30 | JP | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.30 | Low | |