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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 3.7% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 3.7% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from August's 3.5% reading. The reading matched the 3.7% consensus. Producer Price Index YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 7.2%, vs 6.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.57
Actual: 3.7
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.7% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.7% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.64%, ranging from 2% to 7.6% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 6.03%, down from the prior three at 6.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Producer Price Index YoY has averaged 4.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 11, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - JP
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Producer Price Index YoY for October came in at 3.700000%, matching estimates and down from September's 6.800000%, signaling a notable deceleration in inflationary pressures. The sharp decline from 6.8% to 3.7% indicates easing cost pressures on producers after several months of elevated increases. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely as the Bank of Japan maintains its accommodative stance. Updated 10/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 6.8 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 7.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.43) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |