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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tokyo Core CPI YoY fell to 2.6% in October 2026
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY fell to 2.6% in October 2026, down 0.1% from September's 2.7% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.19%.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.75
Actual: 2.6
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.6% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.6% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.6%, up from the prior three at 2%. In October readings over the past 3 years, Tokyo Core CPI YoY has averaged 2.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Tokyo Core CPI YoY - JP
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About Tokyo Core CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Tokyo Core CPI YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Tokyo region in Japan. It provides valuable insights into the inflationary trends and purchasing power of consumers in one of the world's largest and most influential economies. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall health of the Japanese economy and can impact monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 2.7 %. Before that (Jan 2025): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |