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Data from Statistics Bureau of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tokyo Core CPI YoY climbed to 2.5% in January 2025
Statistics Bureau of JapanMonthlyReleased January 2025
Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY climbed to 2.5% in January 2025, up 0.1% from December's 2.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. Tokyo Core CPI YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Tokyo Core CPI YoY is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.5
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: 2.55
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.5% in January 2025. This matched the market consensus of 2.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.17%, down from the prior three at 2.2%. In January readings over the past 3 years, Tokyo Core CPI YoY has averaged 2.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts YoY (May 28) and Unemployment Rate (May 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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Tokyo Core CPI YoY - JP
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About Tokyo Core CPI YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Tokyo Core CPI YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Tokyo region in Japan. It provides valuable insights into the inflationary trends and purchasing power of consumers in one of the world's largest and most influential economies. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it reflects the overall health of the Japanese economy and can impact monetary policy decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2025): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.5 %. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 2.2 %. Before that (Oct 2024): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.