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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY fell to 1.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY fell to 1.9% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from March's 2.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
1.900000
Actual
2.400000
Consensus
2.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.45
Actual: 1.9
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.9% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.4% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.95%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.33%, down from the prior three at 3.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY has averaged 2.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY - JP
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About Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, over a one-year period. This indicator provides a more accurate representation of overall inflation trends, as food and energy prices can fluctuate significantly and skew the data. It is commonly used by economists and policymakers to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.9 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.