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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY climbed to 1.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Japan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY climbed to 1.9% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2% from June's 1.7% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.7% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
1.900000
Actual
1.700000
Consensus
1.700000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: 1.9
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (Japan) was reported at 1.9% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.48%, ranging from 1.7% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, down from the prior three at 2.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY has averaged 2.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY - JP
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About Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, over a one-year period. This indicator provides a more accurate representation of overall inflation trends, as food and energy prices can fluctuate significantly and skew the data. It is commonly used by economists and policymakers to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |