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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY climbed to 2.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY climbed to 2.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's 1.9% reading. The print came in hotter than the 2.0% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
2.400000
Actual
2.000000
Consensus
1.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.05
Actual: 2.4
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (Japan) was reported at 2.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.28%, ranging from 1.7% to 3.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.07%, up from the prior three at 1.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.4%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY has averaged 2.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY - JP
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About Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, over a one-year period. This indicator provides a more accurate representation of overall inflation trends, as food and energy prices can fluctuate significantly and skew the data. It is commonly used by economists and policymakers to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.4 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |